弗(fu)(fu)里(li)(li)(li)德曼(man)(man)生于紐約市(shi)一(yi)個工人階級的(de)(de)猶太人家(jia)庭,父(fu)親(qin)是(shi)(shi)耶諾(nuo)·紹爾·弗(fu)(fu)里(li)(li)(li)德曼(man)(man)(Jeno Saul Friedman),母親(qin)是(shi)(shi)薩(sa)拉(la)·埃特(te)爾·蘭道(Sarah Ethel Landau,1892年-?),兩人從奧匈帝(di)國(今烏克蘭一(yi)帶)移居美(mei)國,在當地邂(xie)逅,曾(ceng)在血汗工廠工作。弗(fu)(fu)里(li)(li)(li)德曼(man)(man)是(shi)(shi)家(jia)中第一(yi)個孩子(zi),也(ye)是(shi)(shi)唯一(yi)的(de)(de)男孩。他的(de)(de)三個妹妹包括(kuo):蒂莉·F·弗(fu)(fu)里(li)(li)(li)德曼(man)(man)(Tillie F. Friedman,1919年-?)、海(hai)倫·弗(fu)(fu)里(li)(li)(li)德曼(man)(man)(Helen Friedman,1920年-?)和露絲·弗(fu)(fu)里(li)(li)(li)德曼(man)(man)(Ruth Friedman,1921年-?)。高中時(shi),弗(fu)(fu)里(li)(li)(li)德曼(man)(man)父(fu)親(qin)逝世(shi)后,舉家(jia)搬到新澤西州的(de)(de)羅威市(shi)(Rahway)。
他16歲前完成高中,憑獎(jiang)學(xue)金入讀羅(luo)格斯大(da)學(xue)。原打算成為精算師(shi)的弗里(li)德(de)曼最初修讀數學(xue),但成績平平。1932年(nian)(nian)取(qu)得文學(xue)士(shi)(shi)(shi),翌(yi)年(nian)(nian)他到芝加(jia)哥大(da)學(xue)修讀碩士(shi)(shi)(shi),1933年(nian)(nian)芝大(da)碩士(shi)(shi)(shi)畢業。上第一堂經(jing)濟課時,座位是以姓(xing)氏字母編排(pai),他緊隨(sui)一名(ming)叫羅(luo)斯(Rose Director)的女生(sheng)之(zhi)后(hou)。兩人(ren)6年(nian)(nian)后(hou)結婚,從此終生(sheng)不(bu)渝(yu)。弗里(li)德(de)曼曾說他的作品無(wu)一不(bu)被羅(luo)斯審閱,更笑言自己成為學(xue)術權威后(hou),羅(luo)斯是唯一膽敢跟他辯論的人(ren).
畢業后(hou),他曾為羅斯福新政(zheng)工作(zuo)以求(qiu)糊口,批準了許(xu)多早期的(de)新政(zheng)措施以解(jie)決(jue)當時面臨(lin)的(de)艱難經(jing)濟情況,尤其是新政(zheng)的(de)許(xu)多公共建設計劃。輾轉間(jian)他到哥(ge)(ge)倫比(bi)亞大學(xue)繼續修讀經(jing)濟學(xue),研(yan)究計量、制度及(ji)實踐(jian)經(jing)濟學(xue)。返回芝加哥(ge)(ge)后(hou),獲亨(heng)利(li)·舒爾(er)茨(Henry Schultz)聘(pin)任為研(yan)究助(zhu)理,協助(zhu)完成(cheng)《需求(qiu)理論(lun)及(ji)計算(suan)》論(lun)文。為美國國家經(jing)濟研(yan)究局工作(zuo)時,他1940年曾完成(cheng)一(yi)書,指醫生的(de)壟斷局面導致他們(men)的(de)收(shou)入遠高于牙醫,引起(qi)局方爭議,令該(gai)書要在戰后(hou)始(shi)能出版。
弗里德曼在(zai)威斯康辛大學任(ren)教了一小段時間,但由于在(zai)經濟學系里碰上(shang)了反猶主義(yi)者(zhe)的阻撓而(er)只得返回政(zheng)府部門工作。
1941年至1943年,他(ta)出任美(mei)國財(cai)政(zheng)部顧問,研(yan)究戰時稅務政(zheng)策,曾支(zhi)持凱恩斯主義的稅賦政(zheng)策,并且(qie)協(xie)助推廣預(yu)扣所(suo)得稅制度(du)。1943年至1945年在(zai)哥(ge)(ge)倫比(bi)亞(ya)(ya)大(da)學參與Harold Hotelling及(ji)W. Allen Wallis的研(yan)究小組(zu),為(wei)武器(qi)設(she)計、戰略及(ji)冶(ye)金實驗分(fen)析數(shu)據。1945年,他(ta)與后來的諾貝爾經濟學獎得主喬治·斯蒂(di)格勒(le)到明尼蘇達大(da)學任職(zhi),1946年他(ta)獲哥(ge)(ge)倫比(bi)亞(ya)(ya)大(da)學博(bo)士(shi)學位,隨后回到芝加哥(ge)(ge)大(da)學教授經濟理論,期間(jian)再為(wei)國家經濟研(yan)究局研(yan)究貨幣在(zai)商業周期的角色。這是(shi)他(ta)學術上的重大(da)分(fen)水(shui)嶺。
在他(ta)(ta)的(de)(de)(de)自(zi)傳(chuan)中,弗里德(de)曼曾描述1941至43年為(wei)羅斯福新(xin)政(zheng)工作(zuo)時(shi),“當時(shi)我是一個徹底的(de)(de)(de)凱(kai)恩斯主義者”。隨(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)時(shi)間(jian)過(guo)去,弗里德(de)曼對于(yu)經濟(ji)政(zheng)策的(de)(de)(de)看法(fa)也(ye)逐漸(jian)轉變(bian),他(ta)(ta)在芝大(da)成立(li)貨幣及(ji)銀行研究小組,借著(zhu)(zhu)經濟(ji)史(shi)論家安娜(na)·施瓦茨(ci)的(de)(de)(de)協(xie)助,發(fa)表(biao)影響深(shen)遠的(de)(de)(de)《美國(guo)貨幣史(shi)》著(zhu)(zhu)作(zuo)。他(ta)(ta)在書中挑(tiao)戰凱(kai)恩斯學派的(de)(de)(de)觀點,抨擊他(ta)(ta)們忽略貨幣供(gong)應(ying)、金融政(zheng)策對經濟(ji)周期及(ji)通脹的(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)性。
他(ta)接著在(zai)芝(zhi)加(jia)哥大(da)學(xue)(xue)(xue)擔任經濟學(xue)(xue)(xue)教授(shou),直至1976年(nian)退(tui)休。這30年(nian)里(li)(li)他(ta)將芝(zhi)大(da)經濟系形塑成(cheng)緊密而(er)完整的經濟學(xue)(xue)(xue)派(pai),力倡自由經濟,被稱(cheng)為(wei)芝(zhi)加(jia)哥經濟學(xue)(xue)(xue)派(pai)。在(zai)弗里(li)(li)德曼的領導下,多(duo)名(ming)芝(zhi)加(jia)哥學(xue)(xue)(xue)派(pai)的成(cheng)員獲得諾貝(bei)爾經濟學(xue)(xue)(xue)獎(jiang)。他(ta)在(zai)1953年(nian)至1954年(nian)間(jian)以訪問學(xue)(xue)(xue)者的身分前往英國(guo)劍(jian)橋大(da)學(xue)(xue)(xue)岡(gang)維爾與(yu)凱斯(si)學(xue)(xue)(xue)院任教。從1977年(nian)開(kai)始弗里(li)(li)德曼也加(jia)入了斯(si)坦(tan)福大(da)學(xue)(xue)(xue)的胡佛(fo)研究所。弗里(li)(li)德曼在(zai)1988年(nian)取(qu)得了美國(guo)的國(guo)家科(ke)學(xue)(xue)(xue)獎(jiang)章。
他(ta)(ta)(ta)(ta)在1980主持(chi)了名(ming)為“選擇的(de)(de)(de)自(zi)由(you)”的(de)(de)(de)節目(mu)(mu),并出版了同名(ming)的(de)(de)(de)著作,使得他(ta)(ta)(ta)(ta)廣(guang)泛的(de)(de)(de)被大眾認識。在節目(mu)(mu)中他(ta)(ta)(ta)(ta)以一支鉛(qian)筆說明自(zi)由(you)市(shi)場的(de)(de)(de)原理的(de)(de)(de)片段,成為了他(ta)(ta)(ta)(ta)廣(guang)受歡(huan)迎的(de)(de)(de)一段言論,至今在網(wang)絡(luo)上依然可(ke)以見到其蹤影。
他通常反(fan)對(dui)(dui)政(zheng)府(fu)干(gan)預(yu)的(de)(de)(de)計(ji)劃,尤其是(shi)(shi)對(dui)(dui)于市(shi)場價(jia)(jia)格(ge)的(de)(de)(de)管(guan)制,他認為價(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)市(shi)場機(ji)制里扮演調度資源所不(bu)可(ke)或缺的(de)(de)(de)信號功能。在(zai)《美國(guo)貨(huo)幣歷史(shi)》一書中,他提出大蕭條其實是(shi)(shi)政(zheng)府(fu)對(dui)(dui)于貨(huo)幣供應(ying)管(guan)制不(bu)當(dang)所致。后來他在(zai)2006年說道(dao):“你知道(dao)嗎?很奇怪的(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)為何人們仍(reng)以為是(shi)(shi)羅斯福的(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)策讓我(wo)們脫離了(le)經濟大蕭條。當(dang)時(shi)的(de)(de)(de)問(wen)題是(shi)(shi),你有一堆(dui)失業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)機(ji)器(qi)和失業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)人民,你怎么能靠著成立(li)產業(ye)壟斷集團(tuan)和提升價(jia)(jia)格(ge)及工資來解決他們的(de)(de)(de)問(wen)題?”
1992年獲諾貝爾經(jing)濟獎的(de)(de)加里·貝克形容,弗(fu)里德曼可能(neng)是全球最為人(ren)認(ren)識的(de)(de)經(jing)濟學(xue)(xue)家(jia),“他(ta)(ta)能(neng)以(yi)最簡單的(de)(de)語言表達最艱深的(de)(de)經(jing)濟理論”。他(ta)(ta)亦是極出色的(de)(de)演(yan)說(shuo)家(jia),能(neng)隨時即席演(yan)說(shuo),極富說(shuo)服(fu)力。香港科技(ji)大學(xue)(xue)經(jing)濟發展(zhan)研究中心主任雷鼎鳴形容弗(fu)里德曼思考(kao)快如閃電,據說(shuo)辯(bian)論從未輸過。“無人(ren)敢說(shuo)辯(bian)贏了他(ta)(ta),因與他(ta)(ta)辯(bian)論過已是無限(xian)光(guang)榮(rong),沒多少人(ren)能(neng)與他(ta)(ta)說(shuo)上兩分鐘。”
弗(fu)里(li)(li)德曼(man)是(shi)學(xue)術世家。他妻子羅絲是(shi)經濟(ji)學(xue)家,其妻兄長亞倫·戴雷科(ke)特是(shi)芝加哥大學(xue)聲望顯赫的法(fa)律學(xue)教(jiao)授(shou)。弗(fu)里(li)(li)德曼(man)育有(you)兩(liang)名子女(nv),包括女(nv)兒珍尼·弗(fu)里(li)(li)德曼(man)及(ji)大衛·弗(fu)里(li)(li)德曼(man),大衛本身是(shi)無政府資本主義(yi)學(xue)說的重要學(xue)者。大衛的兒子Patri畢業于(yu)斯(si)坦福大學(xue),2006年時在(zai)Google任職。
他于2006年11月(yue)16日在舊金山家中因(yin)心臟病發引(yin)致衰(shuai)竭逝世。
"Professor Pigou's Method for Measuring Elasticities of Demand From Budgetary Data" The Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 50, No. 1 (Nov., 1935), pp. 151-163 JSTOR
"Marginal Utility of Money and Elasticities of Demand," The Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 50, No. 3 (May, 1936), pp. 532-533 JSTOR
"The Use of Ranks to Avoid the Assumption of Normality Implicit in the Analysis of Variance," Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 32, No. 200 (Dec., 1937), pp. 675-701 JSTOR
"The Inflationary Gap: II. Discussion of the Inflationary Gap," American Economic Review Vol. 32, No. 2, Part 1 (Jun., 1942), pp. 314-320 JSTOR
"The Spendings Tax as a Wartime Fiscal Measure," American Economic Review Vol. 33, No. 1, Part 1 (Mar., 1943), pp. 50-62 JSTOR
Taxing to Prevent Inflation: Techniques for Estimating Revenue Requirements (Columbia U.P. 1943, 236pp) with Carl Shoup and Ruth P. Mack
Income from Independent Professional Practice with Simon Kuznets (1945), 弗里德曼的(de)博士論文
"Lange on Price Flexibility and Employment: A Methodological Criticism," American Economic Review Vol. 36, No. 4 (Sep., 1946), pp. 613-631 JSTOR
"Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk" with Leonard Savage, 1948, Journal of Political Economy Vol. 56, No. 4 (Aug., 1948), pp. 279-304 JSTOR
"A Monetary and Fiscal Framework for Economic Stability", 1948, American Economic Review, Vol. 38, No. 3 (Jun., 1948), pp. 245-264 JSTOR
"A Fiscal and Monetary Framework for Economic Stability," Econometrica Vol. 17, Supplement: Report of the Washington Meeting (Jul., 1949), pp. 330-332 JSTOR
"The Marshallian Demand Curve," The Journal of Political Economy Vol. 57, No. 6 (Dec., 1949), pp. 463-495 JSTOR
"Wesley C. Mitchell as an Economic Theorist," The Journal of Political Economy Vol. 58, No. 6 (Dec., 1950), pp. 465-493 JSTOR
"Some Comments on the Significance of Labor Unions for Economic Policy", 1951, in D. McC. Wright, editor, The Impact of the Union.
"Commodity-Reserve Currency," Journal of Political Economy Vol. 59, No. 3 (Jun., 1951), pp. 203-232 JSTOR
"Price, Income, and Monetary Changes in Three Wartime Periods," American Economic Review Vol. 42, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Sixty-fourth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 1952), pp. 612-625 JSTOR
"The Expected-Utility Hypothesis and the Measurability of Utility", with Leonard Savage, 1952, Journal of Political Economy Vol. 60, No. 6 (Dec., 1952), pp. 463-474 JSTOR
The Methodology of Positive Economics (1953)
Essays in Positive Economics (1953)
"Choice, Chance, and the Personal Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy Vol. 61, No. 4 (Aug., 1953), pp. 277-290 JSTOR
"The Quantity Theory of Money: A restatement", 1956, in Friedman, editor, Studies in Quantity Theory.
A Theory of the Consumption Function (1957)
"A Statistical Illusion in Judging Keynesian Models" with Gary S. Becker, Journal of Political Economy Vol. 65, No. 1 (Feb., 1957), pp. 64-75 JSTOR
"The Supply of Money and Changes in Prices and Output", 1958, in Relationship of Prices to Economic Stability and Growth.
"The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results," Journal of Political Economy Vol. 67, No. 4 (Aug., 1959), pp. 327-351 JSTOR
A Program for Monetary Stability (Fordham University Press, 1960) 110 pp
"Monetary Data and National Income Estimates," Economic Development and Cultural Change Vol. 9, No. 3, (Apr., 1961), pp. 267-286 JSTOR
"The Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political EconomyVol. 69, No. 5 (Oct., 1961), pp. 447-466 JSTOR
Price Theory ISBN 0-202-06074-8 (1962), college textbook
"The Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 57, No. 300 (Dec., 1962), pp. 729-757 JSTOR
"Should There be an Independent Monetary Authority?", in L.B. Yeager, editor, In Search of a Monetary Constitution
Inflation: Causes and consequences, 1963.
"Money and Business Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 45, No. 1, Part 2, Supplement (Feb., 1963), pp. 32-64 JSTOR
A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960, with Anna J. Schwartz, 1963; part 3 reprinted as The Great Contraction
"Money and Business Cycles" with A. J. Schwartz, 1963, Review of Economics & Statistics.
"The Relative Stability of Monetary Velocity and the Investment Multiplier in the United States, 1898-1958", with D. Meiselman, 1963, in Stabilization Policies.
"A Reply to Donald Hester", with D. Meiselman, 1964
"Reply to Ando and Modigliani and to DePrano and Mayer," with David Meiselman. American Economic Review Vol. 55, No. 4 (Sep., 1965), pp. 753-785 JSTOR
"Interest Rates and the Demand for Money," Journal of Law and Economics Vol. 9 (Oct., 1966), pp. 71-85 JSTOR
The Balance of Payments: Free Versus Fixed Exchange Rates with Robert V. Roosa (1967)]
"The Monetary Theory and Policy of Henry Simons," Journal of Law and Economics Vol. 10 (Oct., 1967), pp. 1-13 JSTOR
"What Price Guideposts?", in G.P. Schultz, R.Z. Aliber, editors, Guidelines
"The Role of Monetary Policy." American Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 1 (Mar., 1968), pp. 1-17 JSTOR presidential address to American Economics Association
"Money: the Quantity Theory", 1968, IESS
"The Definition of Money: Net Wealth and Neutrality as Criteria" with Anna J. Schwartz, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Vol. 1, No. 1 (Feb., 1969), pp. 1-14 JSTOR
'Monetary vs. Fiscal Policy with Walter W. Heller (1969)
"Comment on Tobin", 1970, Quarterly Journal of Economics
"Monetary Statistics of the United States: Sources, methods. with Anna J. Schwartz, 1970.
"A Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis," Journal of Political Economy Vol. 78, No. 2 (Mar., 1970), pp. 193-238 JSTOR
The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory 1970.
"A Monetary Theory of National Income", 1971, Journal of Political Economy
"Government Revenue from Inflation," Journal of Political Economy Vol. 79, No. 4 (Jul., 1971), pp. 846-856 JSTOR
"Have Monetary Policies Failed?" American Economic Review Vol. 62, No. 1/2 (1972), pp. 11-18 JSTOR
"Comments on the Critics," Journal of Political Economy Vol. 80, No. 5 (Sep., 1972), pp. 906-950 JSTOR
"Comments on the Critics", 1974, in Gordon, ed. Milton Friedman and his Critics.
"Monetary Correction: A proposal for escalation clauses to reduce the cost of ending inflation", 1974
The Optimum Quantity of Money: And Other Essays (1976)
Milton Friedman in Australia, 1975 (1975)
Milton Friedman's Monetary Framework: A Debate with His Critics (1975)
"Comments on Tobin and Buiter", 1976, in J. Stein, editor, Monetarism.
"Inflation and Unemployment: Nobel lecture", 1977, Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 85, pp. 451-72. JSTOR
"Interrelations between the United States and the United Kingdom, 1873-1975.", with A.J. Schwartz, 1982, J Int Money and Finance
Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom: Their relations to income, prices and interest rates, 1876-1975. with Anna J. Schwartz, 1982
"Monetary Policy: Theory and Practice," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Vol. 14, No. 1 (Feb., 1982), pp. 98-118 JSTOR
"Monetary Policy: Tactics versus strategy", 1984, in Moore, editor, To Promote Prosperity.
“Lessons from the 1979-1982 Monetary Policy Experiment, ” Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association. pp. 397-401. (1984).
"Has Government Any Role in Money?" with Anna J. Schwartz, 1986, JME
"Quantity Theory of Money", in J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, P. Newman, eds., The New Palgrave (1998)
"Money and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy Vol. 96, No. 2 (Apr., 1988), pp. 221-245 JSTOR
"Bimetallism Revisited," Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol. 4, No. 4 (Autumn, 1990), pp. 85-104 JSTOR
"The Crime of 1873," Journal of Political Economy Vol. 98, No. 6 (Dec., 1990), pp. 1159-1194 JSTOR
"Franklin D. Roosevelt, Silver, and China," Journal of Political Economy Vol. 100, No. 1 (Feb., 1992), pp. 62-83 JSTOR
Chao, Hsiang-ke. "Milton Friedman and the Emergence of the Permanent Income Hypothesis" History of Political Economy 2003 35(1): 77-104. Issn: 0018-2702 Fulltext in Project Muse
A.W. Bob Coats; "The Legacy of Milton Friedman as Teacher" Economic Record, Vol. 77, 2001
Frazer, William. Power and Ideas: Milton Friedman and the Big U-Turn. Vol. 1: The Background. Vol. 2: The U-Turn. Gainesville, Fla.: Gulf/Atlantic, 1988. 867 pp.
Hammond, J. Daniel. "Remembering Economics" Journal of the History of Economic Thought 2003 25(2): 133-143. Issn: 1042-7716; focus is on Friedman
Hirsch, Abraham, and Neil de Marchi. Milton Friedman: Economics in Theory and Practice (1990) his methodology
Jordan, Jerry L., Allan H. Meltzer, Thomas J. Sargent and Anna J. Schwartz; "Milton, Money, and Mischief: Symposium and Articles in Honor of Milton Friedman's 80th Birthday" Economic Inquiry. Volume: 31. Issue: 2. 1993. pp 197+.
Kasper, Sherryl. The Revival of Laissez-Faire in American Macroeconomic Theory: A Case Study of Its Pioneers (2002)
Leeson, Robert, ed. Ideology and International Economy: The Decline and Fall of Bretton Woods (2003)
Powell, Jim. The Triumph of Liberty (New York: Free Press, 2000). See profile of Friedman in the chapter "Inflation and Depression."
Rayack; Elton. Not So Free to Choose: The Political Economy of Milton Friedman and Ronald Reagan Praeger, 1987; attacks Friedman's policies from the left
Steindl, Frank G. "Friedman and Money in the 1930s" History of Political Economy 2004 36(3): 521-531. Issn: 0018-2702 lecture notes from his 1940 course show he did not criticize the Fed at that time, and did not emphasize money.
Tavlas, George S. "Retrospectives: Was the Monetarist Tradition Invented?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 1998 12(4): 211-222. Issn: 0895-3309 Fulltext in JSTOR
Stigler, George Joseph. Memoirs of an Unregulated Economist (1988)
Wahid, Abu N. M. ed; Frontiers of Economics: Nobel Laureates of the Twentieth Century. Greenwood Press. 2002 pp 109-15.
《實證(zheng)經濟學論文集》(Essays in Positive Economics)
《消費(fei)函數理論》(A Theory of the Consumption Function)
《資(zi)本主義與(yu)自由》(Capitalism and Freedom)
《自(zi)由選擇(ze)》(Free to Choose)
《價(jia)格理論》(Price Theory:A Provisional Text)
《美國貨幣史》(A Monetary History of the United States,1867一(yi)1960)與(yu)施瓦茲(zi)(Anna J.Schwartz)
弗里德(de)曼最(zui)知名的(de)(de)理論,是(shi)他提出的(de)(de)貨幣(bi)(bi)供給(gei)作(zuo)為決(jue)定(ding)(ding)生(sheng)產(chan)價值(zhi)基準(zhun)的(de)(de)因素(su),通貨膨(peng)脹在(zai)(zai)根(gen)本上源(yuan)自于貨幣(bi)(bi)供給(gei)量的(de)(de)主(zhu)張(zhang)。貨幣(bi)(bi)主(zhu)義是(shi)現(xian)(xian)代經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)學在(zai)(zai)貨幣(bi)(bi)數量理論的(de)(de)重要觀(guan)點之(zhi)一(yi)(yi),這(zhe)(zhe)種(zhong)理論的(de)(de)根(gen)源(yuan)可以追溯至16世紀西(xi)班牙(ya)的(de)(de)薩(sa)拉曼卡(ka)學派,弗里德(de)曼的(de)(de)貢獻則(ze)是(shi)現(xian)(xian)代化了(le)(le)(le)這(zhe)(zhe)種(zhong)理論,將其推(tui)廣為現(xian)(xian)代經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)學的(de)(de)主(zhu)流貨幣(bi)(bi)學說。他在(zai)(zai)1963年(nian)與Anna Schwartz合著的(de)(de)A Monetary History of the United States一(yi)(yi)書(shu)中(zhong)檢驗了(le)(le)(le)美(mei)國(guo)歷史上貨幣(bi)(bi)供給(gei)和經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)活動之(zhi)間的(de)(de)關聯。他們(men)得出了(le)(le)(le)驚人結論:貨幣(bi)(bi)供給(gei)一(yi)(yi)向是(shi)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)活動起伏的(de)(de)唯一(yi)(yi)影(ying)響(xiang)來源(yuan)。又或者如同美(mei)國(guo)聯邦儲(chu)備系統(tong)的(de)(de)主(zhu)席本·伯南克在(zai)(zai)2002年(nian)慶祝(zhu)弗里德(de)曼90歲生(sheng)日時所描述(shu)的(de)(de):“有關大蕭條,你(ni)是(shi)正確的(de)(de),我們(men)(聯邦儲(chu)備系統(tong))當時的(de)(de)確做錯(cuo)了(le)(le)(le)。我們(men)真的(de)(de)很抱歉。”David Meiselman在(zai)(zai)1960年(nian)代進(jin)(jin)行的(de)(de)幾次研(yan)究顯示了(le)(le)(le)貨幣(bi)(bi)供給(gei)在(zai)(zai)決(jue)定(ding)(ding)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)投資、以及(ji)政府開(kai)銷在(zai)(zai)決(jue)定(ding)(ding)消費及(ji)生(sheng)產(chan)總額上的(de)(de)角色是(shi)至高無(wu)上的(de)(de)。弗里德(de)曼的(de)(de)觀(guan)察研(yan)究和一(yi)(yi)些(xie)學說進(jin)(jin)一(yi)(yi)步推(tui)展(zhan)了(le)(le)(le)這(zhe)(zhe)種(zhong)結論,主(zhu)張(zhang)貨幣(bi)(bi)供給(gei)的(de)(de)改變是(shi)影(ying)響(xiang)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)生(sheng)產(chan)的(de)(de)首(shou)要原因,但(dan)長(chang)期的(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang)則(ze)是(shi)由物價水平(ping)決(jue)定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)。
弗里德曼(man)對(dui)于消(xiao)費層(ceng)面(mian)的(de)(de)分析也相當知名,亦即他(ta)(ta)在(zai)1957年(nian)提出的(de)(de)恒常(chang)所得假說。這(zhe)(zhe)個理論被一(yi)些(xie)經濟(ji)學者視為是他(ta)(ta)在(zai)經濟(ji)學方法論上最重(zhong)要的(de)(de)貢(gong)獻。他(ta)(ta)其他(ta)(ta)重(zhong)要的(de)(de)貢(gong)獻還(huan)包括了(le)對(dui)菲利普斯曲(qu)線(xian)的(de)(de)批評,以及(ji)(ji)他(ta)(ta)提出的(de)(de)失業率的(de)(de)自然(ran)比率的(de)(de)概(gai)念(nian)(1968年(nian))。這(zhe)(zhe)些(xie)學說都與貨幣和(he)金融政策在(zai)對(dui)經濟(ji)的(de)(de)長期及(ji)(ji)短期影響上有(you)關。在(zai)統計(ji)學上,他(ta)(ta)則創造出了(le)知名的(de)(de)弗里德曼(man)測試。
弗里德曼的論(lun)(lun)文The Methodology of Positive Economics(1953年(nian))則替他稍后幾十年(nian)的研究方法論(lun)(lun)架(jia)構(gou)了模型,并且也成為了芝加哥經(jing)濟學派的主(zhu)要框架(jia)之一(yi)。他主(zhu)張經(jing)濟學身為一(yi)種學科,應(ying)該(gai)(gai)免(mian)于客觀的價值(zhi)衡量。除此之外(wai),一(yi)個經(jing)濟理(li)論(lun)(lun)有用與否(fou)(fou),不應(ying)該(gai)(gai)是以它對(dui)現實的描述(例如頭(tou)發顏(yan)色(se))作(zuo)為衡量標準,而是應(ying)該(gai)(gai)以它能(neng)否(fou)(fou)有效(xiao)作(zuo)為對(dui)未來(lai)情況的預測為基準。
弗(fu)里德曼(man)在理(li)論上(shang)有三大貢(gong)獻(xian),首先是(shi)提(ti)出現(xian)代(dai)貨(huo)幣數量論,即通貨(huo)膨脹起源于“太多(duo)的貨(huo)幣追逐太少(shao)的商品”。政府可以通過控制(zhi)貨(huo)幣增長(chang)來遏制(zhi)通脹。這被視為(wei)現(xian)代(dai)經(jing)濟理(li)論的一(yi)場革命。
其次,他(ta)創(chuang)立消(xiao)費函數理論,對凱恩(en)斯經濟理論中的(de)邊際(ji)消(xiao)費遞減(jian)規(gui)律進行駁(bo)斥。凱恩(en)斯認為,隨著社(she)會(hui)財富和個(ge)人(ren)(ren)收入的(de)增加(jia),人(ren)(ren)們用于(yu)消(xiao)費方面的(de)支出(chu)呈遞減(jian)趨勢(shi),與此同(tong)時儲(chu)蓄(xu)則越來越多。因此政府(fu)可以通過(guo)增加(jia)公(gong)共(gong)支出(chu)來抵(di)消(xiao)個(ge)人(ren)(ren)消(xiao)費的(de)減(jian)少,從(cong)而保(bao)證(zheng)經濟的(de)持續增長。弗里德(de)曼指出(chu),這(zhe)一理論站不住腳,因為人(ren)(ren)們的(de)欲望實(shi)際(ji)上(shang)永無止境(jing),原有的(de)得到(dao)滿足(zu)后,新的(de)隨即(ji)產生。
第三,1968年,弗里德曼與美國哥倫比亞大(da)學(xue)(xue)經(jing)濟(ji)學(xue)(xue)家菲爾普(pu)同(tong)時提(ti)出“自(zi)然率假說”理(li)論。他(ta)們發現,長期來看(kan),失業率與通(tong)貨膨脹并沒有(you)必然聯(lian)系。自(zi)然失業率永遠存在,是(shi)不可消除的。因(yin)此政府的宏觀調控(kong)政策長期來看(kan)是(shi)不起(qi)任(ren)何作用的。
1951年:約翰·貝茲·克拉克獎(John Bates Clark Medal)
1976年(nian):諾(nuo)貝(bei)爾經濟(ji)學獎(jiang)
1988年:國家科(ke)學獎(jiang)章
1988年(nian):總統自由(you)勛章(Presidential Medal of Freedom)