2019年(nian)1月(yue)3日,中國(guo)社會科學院人口與(yu)(yu)(yu)勞(lao)動(dong)經濟研究所與(yu)(yu)(yu)社會科學文獻出版社共同舉(ju)辦(ban)的《人口與(yu)(yu)(yu)勞(lao)動(dong)綠皮書:中國(guo)人口與(yu)(yu)(yu)勞(lao)動(dong)問題(ti)報告No.19》發布(bu)會在北京舉(ju)行(xing)。
2018年是改(gai)革(ge)開(kai)放40周年。在經濟(ji)改(gai)革(ge)和(he)對外開(kai)放的推動(dong)(dong)下,中國人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)發展(zhan)(zhan)取得了歷史性的巨(ju)大進步,完成了人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)轉(zhuan)變(bian),人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)質量(liang)和(he)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)城(cheng)鎮化水平大幅度提高,人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)流動(dong)(dong)高度活躍,為社會經濟(ji)發展(zhan)(zhan)貢(gong)獻(xian)了豐厚的人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)紅利。進入21世紀(ji)以來(lai),由于“劉(liu)易(yi)斯轉(zhuan)折點”的出現,當前勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)力增(zeng)長(chang)處于停滯;勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)年齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)加速(su)減少(shao)和(he)老年人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)加速(su)增(zeng)長(chang),導(dao)致人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)撫養比將會持續提高;以老年人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)增(zeng)長(chang)為主導(dao)力量(liang)的老齡(ling)化趨(qu)勢(shi)日益加劇。這些趨(qu)勢(shi)性的轉(zhuan)變(bian)不僅直接改(gai)變(bian)了人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)發展(zhan)(zhan)面(mian)臨的形勢(shi)和(he)任務,同時也給社會經濟(ji)發展(zhan)(zhan)帶來(lai)巨(ju)大而深遠(yuan)的影響(xiang)。
2019年是新(xin)中國成(cheng)立70周年,也是實現全面建成(cheng)小康(kang)社會目標的關(guan)鍵一(yi)年。就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)形勢穩(wen)定至關(guan)重(zhong)要,就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)工(gong)作(zuo)應該重(zhong)點關(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)以下幾個方面問題:一(yi)是妥善(shan)應對過去幾年化解產能(neng)過剩和地(di)方債務(wu)風(feng)險(xian)過程中積(ji)(ji)累的潛在就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)影(ying)響,積(ji)(ji)極做好就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)轉移、技能(neng)培訓和社會保障相(xiang)關(guan)工(gong)作(zuo);二是監測貧(pin)困人口(kou)和脫貧(pin)家庭的就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)狀(zhuang)況,繼續推進就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)扶貧(pin)工(gong)作(zuo),增強脫貧(pin)攻堅(jian)成(cheng)效;三是關(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)人口(kou)凈流出(chu)地(di)區、資源枯竭地(di)區等就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)形勢,防止出(chu)現局部性大規模失業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye);四是繼續做好應屆高校(xiao)畢業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生、退(tui)伍軍人等重(zhong)點群(qun)體(ti)的就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)工(gong)作(zuo),同時關(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)退(tui)休(xiu)返聘(pin)或再就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)人員、農村(cun)遷移老年人再就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)等新(xin)現象,落實相(xiang)關(guan)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)政策(ce)。
為(wei)應對(dui)數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)濟對(dui)就業(ye)(ye)市場(chang)和就業(ye)(ye)制(zhi)度(du)所帶來的(de)各(ge)項(xiang)挑戰,我國要(yao)做好(hao)數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)濟大環境下(xia)就業(ye)(ye)服(fu)務的(de)頂層(ceng)設計,推動(dong)從工業(ye)(ye)經(jing)濟的(de)“千(qian)(qian)人(ren)一(yi)(yi)面”到數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)濟下(xia)“千(qian)(qian)人(ren)千(qian)(qian)面”的(de)轉變,實現人(ren)口紅利(li)向人(ren)才紅利(li)的(de)跨越發(fa)(fa)(fa)展。為(wei)了激(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)濟的(de)全(quan)部潛力(li),政(zheng)府要(yao)完善就業(ye)(ye)相關法律和社(she)會保障(zhang)制(zhi)度(du),提高制(zhi)度(du)和政(zheng)策的(de)靈活性(xing)與(yu)普惠性(xing);要(yao)重視數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)人(ren)才培(pei)養、數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)技能培(pei)訓,加強數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)人(ren)力(li)資源開發(fa)(fa)(fa);要(yao)構建全(quan)國統一(yi)(yi)的(de)就業(ye)(ye)信息服(fu)務網(wang)絡,優化就業(ye)(ye)服(fu)務體系;要(yao)努力(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展新(xin)產業(ye)(ye)、新(xin)業(ye)(ye)態,充分發(fa)(fa)(fa)掘數(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)濟的(de)就業(ye)(ye)創造能力(li)。
中國人口發展面臨的六大趨勢性重大轉折
進入(ru)21世紀以(yi)來,中國(guo)人(ren)口已經(jing)出現(xian)了幾個重大(da)轉(zhuan)折,在未來一個時期內還將出現(xian)新的轉(zhuan)折性變(bian)(bian)化。這些趨勢(shi)性的轉(zhuan)變(bian)(bian)不僅(jin)直接改(gai)變(bian)(bian)了人(ren)口發展(zhan)(zhan)面臨的形勢(shi)和任務,同時也(ye)給社會經(jing)濟(ji)發展(zhan)(zhan)帶來巨大(da)而深(shen)遠的影響。
(一)勞動力變化趨勢的轉折
在(zai)過(guo)去的(de)一(yi)個(ge)時期里,中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)歷了(le)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力的(de)快速增(zeng)長(chang),勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力的(de)無限(xian)供(gong)給曾經(jing)是(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)高(gao)速發展的(de)重要條件,也(ye)曾經(jing)是(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)比較優勢的(de)重要基礎。進(jin)(jin)入21世紀后,勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力供(gong)給發生了(le)重大變化(hua)。首(shou)先是(shi)“劉易斯轉(zhuan)折(zhe)點”的(de)出現(xian):2003年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)出現(xian)的(de)“民(min)(min)工荒(huang)(huang)”標(biao)志著中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力無限(xian)供(gong)給時代的(de)結束(shu)(蔡昉(fang)(fang),2008),都(dou)陽(yang)和王(wang)美(mei)艷(2010)利用(yong)2005年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1%人口抽樣調查數(shu)據(ju)(ju),并在(zai)考慮農(nong)村(cun)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力結構和個(ge)體特征的(de)情(qing)況(kuang)下對農(nong)村(cun)剩(sheng)余(yu)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力數(shu)量進(jin)(jin)行(xing)了(le)估計(ji),他們的(de)研究結果顯(xian)示,在(zai)現(xian)有的(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力市場狀況(kuang)和制度環境下,農(nong)業(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)可供(gong)轉(zhuan)移的(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力只(zhi)剩(sheng)下4300多(duo)萬。根據(ju)(ju)國(guo)家統計(ji)局(ju)公(gong)布的(de)數(shu)據(ju)(ju),2010~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)間農(nong)民(min)(min)工數(shu)量增(zeng)加了(le)3900萬,其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)外出農(nong)民(min)(min)工數(shu)量僅增(zeng)加了(le)1850萬。“民(min)(min)工荒(huang)(huang)”在(zai)東部沿(yan)海(hai)地區蔓延之后,其(qi)他地區勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力市場也(ye)出現(xian)了(le)農(nong)民(min)(min)工供(gong)不應求的(de)現(xian)象,農(nong)民(min)(min)工的(de)工資水平逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)上漲,這些證據(ju)(ju)都(dou)表明中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)到(dao)達(da)了(le)“劉易斯轉(zhuan)折(zhe)點”(蔡昉(fang)(fang)、都(dou)陽(yang),2011)。其(qi)次是(shi)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人口數(shu)量開(kai)始減(jian)少(shao)(shao):2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人口(16~64歲)比前一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)了(le)160萬,這標(biao)志著中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)潛在(zai)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力資源縮(suo)減(jian)時代的(de)到(dao)來。到(dao)2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人口總共(gong)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)了(le)578萬,隨著1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代出生高(gao)峰隊列陸續(xu)超出勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling),勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人口將(jiang)(jiang)會加速減(jian)少(shao)(shao)。聯合國(guo)(United Nations,2017)中(zhong)(zhong)方案預測(ce)結果顯(xian)示,中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)的(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人口在(zai)未來很長(chang)一(yi)個(ge)時期內將(jiang)(jiang)持續(xu)地加速減(jian)少(shao)(shao),到(dao)2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)2億(yi)人。勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力轉(zhuan)為負增(zeng)長(chang)對于中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)而言是(shi)一(yi)個(ge)重大的(de)變數(shu),不僅給勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力市場供(gong)求關系帶來結構性轉(zhuan)變,同(tong)時也(ye)對各種相關制度的(de)改(gai)革提出了(le)迫切要求。
(二)人口撫養比變化趨勢的轉折
人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)撫養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)變(bian)化的(de)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折(zhe)(zhe)點(dian)出(chu)現于(yu)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),撫養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)從前(qian)一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)34.2%提高(gao)(gao)到(dao)34.4%,從而(er)終結了(le)(le)(le)持續了(le)(le)(le)30多年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)下(xia)降(jiang)過程(cheng)(cheng)。導致(zhi)這(zhe)個(ge)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折(zhe)(zhe)性變(bian)化的(de)直(zhi)接(jie)原(yuan)因(yin)有(you)兩個(ge)。一(yi)個(ge)原(yuan)因(yin)是勞(lao)動年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)緩慢,2005~2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)總(zong)共(gong)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)了(le)(le)(le)6.5%,2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)僅僅增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)了(le)(le)(le)0.35%和0.1%。15~64歲勞(lao)動年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)占總(zong)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)的(de)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重的(de)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折(zhe)(zhe)發生在(zai)2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),雖然(ran)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)峰值(74.4%)僅僅降(jiang)低了(le)(le)(le)0.3個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian),但這(zhe)個(ge)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折(zhe)(zhe)的(de)意義重大(da)。2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)勞(lao)動年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)占比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)到(dao)73.0%,使(shi)得(de)這(zhe)個(ge)下(xia)降(jiang)趨勢(shi)得(de)到(dao)確認。另(ling)一(yi)個(ge)原(yuan)因(yin)是老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)出(chu)現了(le)(le)(le)較快的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang),2005~2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)了(le)(le)(le)21.8%,年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)率(lv)為(wei)3.28%,遠遠超(chao)過勞(lao)動年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)速(su)度(du)(du)。2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以后老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)率(lv)進一(yi)步(bu)提高(gao)(gao),2011~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)均增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)率(lv)達到(dao)4.26%,而(er)勞(lao)動年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)自2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)起(qi)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)為(wei)負(fu)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang),這(zhe)使(shi)得(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)撫養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)在(zai)2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提高(gao)(gao)到(dao)37%。從未(wei)來(lai)(lai)發展趨勢(shi)看,由于(yu)勞(lao)動年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)加(jia)速(su)減少(shao)和老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)加(jia)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang),人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)撫養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)將會(hui)持續提高(gao)(gao)。此(ci)外,政策調(diao)整后的(de)生育率(lv)回升(sheng)(sheng)會(hui)在(zai)一(yi)定(ding)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)(du)上(shang)提高(gao)(gao)少(shao)兒撫養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi),因(yin)此(ci)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)撫養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提高(gao)(gao)的(de)幅度(du)(du)將會(hui)進一(yi)步(bu)加(jia)大(da)。根據(ju)聯(lian)合(he)國中方案預測結果,未(wei)來(lai)(lai)的(de)40年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)里,少(shao)兒撫養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)基(ji)本上(shang)是在(zai)22~25之間窄幅波動,而(er)老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)撫養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)在(zai)2060年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)之前(qian)一(yi)直(zhi)保持上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)狀態,并(bing)在(zai)2028年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右超(chao)過少(shao)兒撫養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi),成為(wei)決定(ding)總(zong)撫養(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)變(bian)化趨勢(shi)的(de)主導因(yin)素。
在(zai)其他條件一(yi)定的(de)(de)(de)(de)情況(kuang)下,人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提高意味著人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)生(sheng)產(chan)性的(de)(de)(de)(de)下降,邊際人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)紅(hong)利為(wei)負(fu)(fu)。特(te)別需要注意的(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi),人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提高有(you)(you)兩(liang)種情況(kuang),其一(yi)是(shi)(shi)由少(shao)兒(er)(er)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)導的(de)(de)(de)(de)總撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提高,其二是(shi)(shi)由老年(nian)(nian)(nian)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)導的(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)總撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提高。或者說,同樣水(shui)平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi),但內部結(jie)(jie)構(gou)不(bu)同,一(yi)種結(jie)(jie)構(gou)是(shi)(shi)以(yi)負(fu)(fu)擔(dan)少(shao)兒(er)(er)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu),另(ling)一(yi)種結(jie)(jie)構(gou)是(shi)(shi)以(yi)負(fu)(fu)擔(dan)老年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)。例如,2032年(nian)(nian)(nian)中國人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)將(jiang)(jiang)回升到(dao)51%左右,與1994年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)水(shui)平(ping)相當(dang),但是(shi)(shi)1994年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)中,少(shao)兒(er)(er)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)占到(dao)83.4%,而2032年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)中,老年(nian)(nian)(nian)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)占到(dao)56%。這兩(liang)種情況(kuang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)社會經濟(ji)含義有(you)(you)很(hen)大(da)差別,前者是(shi)(shi)對(dui)未來生(sheng)產(chan)力的(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資,后者則是(shi)(shi)純粹的(de)(de)(de)(de)消費,對(dui)于公共支出而言(yan),這兩(liang)種負(fu)(fu)擔(dan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)意義也完全不(bu)同。中國未來撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)將(jiang)(jiang)會在(zai)水(shui)平(ping)和結(jie)(jie)構(gou)兩(liang)個維(wei)度上發(fa)生(sheng)變(bian)(bian)化(hua),在(zai)水(shui)平(ping)維(wei)度上將(jiang)(jiang)會出現長達40年(nian)(nian)(nian)左右的(de)(de)(de)(de)上升趨(qu)勢,在(zai)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)維(wei)度上將(jiang)(jiang)發(fa)生(sheng)從以(yi)少(shao)兒(er)(er)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)轉變(bian)(bian)為(wei)以(yi)老年(nian)(nian)(nian)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)。這兩(liang)個維(wei)度的(de)(de)(de)(de)變(bian)(bian)化(hua)都會削弱人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)產(chan)性。
(三)生育政策的轉向和生育率的回升
如(ru)同(tong)許多處于后生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)轉變階段的(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)家,中(zhong)國(guo)在完(wan)成了(le)轉變之后也(ye)很快走向了(le)很低(di)(di)水(shui)平的(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)。長期的(de)(de)(de)(de)低(di)(di)生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)會(hui)導(dao)致高(gao)度的(de)(de)(de)(de)老齡(ling)化(hua)和(he)人(ren)口(kou)衰退,從而(er)給社會(hui)經濟(ji)帶(dai)來多重(zhong)挑戰,因此(ci)世界上幾(ji)乎所(suo)有處于很低(di)(di)和(he)極低(di)(di)生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)水(shui)平的(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)家都(dou)采取(qu)了(le)支持和(he)鼓勵生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)(ce)。對于生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)轉變非(fei)常迅(xun)速的(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)國(guo)而(er)言,如(ru)果低(di)(di)生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)不(bu)能(neng)很快得(de)到(dao)扭轉,將會(hui)面(mian)臨比(bi)其他國(guo)家更為(wei)嚴峻的(de)(de)(de)(de)局面(mian)。2013年(nian)(nian)11月,《中(zhong)共(gong)中(zhong)央關于全(quan)面(mian)深化(hua)改革若(ruo)干重(zhong)大(da)(da)問題的(de)(de)(de)(de)決定》提(ti)出(chu)“啟(qi)動實(shi)施一方(fang)是獨生(sheng)(sheng)子(zi)女的(de)(de)(de)(de)夫(fu)婦(fu)可(ke)生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)兩個(ge)孩(hai)子(zi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)(ce)”,2015年(nian)(nian)10月中(zhong)共(gong)中(zhong)央決定“全(quan)面(mian)實(shi)施一對夫(fu)婦(fu)可(ke)以(yi)生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)兩個(ge)孩(hai)子(zi)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)(ce)”。政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)(ce)實(shi)施后,雖然生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)提(ti)高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)幅度不(bu)盡如(ru)人(ren)意,但也(ye)已經顯(xian)現出(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)對新生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)(ce)的(de)(de)(de)(de)積極反應。國(guo)家統計(ji)局根據(ju)全(quan)國(guo)人(ren)口(kou)變動抽(chou)樣調查數據(ju)的(de)(de)(de)(de)推算分析表明,2016年(nian)(nian)二(er)孩(hai)出(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)數量(liang)大(da)(da)幅上升,明顯(xian)高(gao)于“十二(er)五”時期平均水(shui)平,2017年(nian)(nian)二(er)孩(hai)數量(liang)進一步上升至883萬人(ren),比(bi)2016年(nian)(nian)增加了(le)162萬人(ren);二(er)孩(hai)占全(quan)部(bu)出(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)人(ren)口(kou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)比(bi)重(zhong)達到(dao)51.2%,比(bi)2016年(nian)(nian)提(ti)高(gao)了(le)11個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)。在全(quan)部(bu)出(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)嬰兒(er)中(zhong),二(er)孩(hai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)比(bi)例明顯(xian)提(ti)高(gao),并且超過了(le)50%。根據(ju)世界銀(yin)行估計(ji),中(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)總和(he)生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)從1996年(nian)(nian)開始一直低(di)(di)于1.6,直到(dao)2013年(nian)(nian)回(hui)升到(dao)1.6,2016年(nian)(nian)為(wei)1.62。如(ru)果這(zhe)個(ge)趨勢能(neng)夠得(de)到(dao)延續,那么中(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)就可(ke)以(yi)回(hui)升到(dao)一個(ge)相對安全(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)水(shui)平。
(四)老齡化動力機制的轉換
老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡化(hua)進程并非只(zhi)由一(yi)種力(li)量(liang)(liang)推(tui)動(dong)(dong),因為老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡化(hua)是(shi)(shi)(shi)以老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口占總人(ren)口比(bi)重來衡量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de),老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡化(hua)是(shi)(shi)(shi)老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口與其他年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡人(ren)口相對變化(hua)的(de)(de)結果。因此,有(you)三種力(li)量(liang)(liang)會推(tui)動(dong)(dong)老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡化(hua),第一(yi)個力(li)量(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)生育率下(xia)降導(dao)致出生人(ren)口減(jian)少,此時即使老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口增長緩慢甚(shen)至沒有(you)增長,老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口比(bi)重也(ye)會提高;第二個力(li)量(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口的(de)(de)增長;第三個力(li)量(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)長壽(shou),即老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)存(cun)活的(de)(de)年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡更(geng)高。由人(ren)口變化(hua)的(de)(de)內在機理和(he)歷(li)史邏輯(ji)所(suo)決定,一(yi)個人(ren)口群體的(de)(de)老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡化(hua)過程是(shi)(shi)(shi)分(fen)(fen)別由不同(tong)的(de)(de)力(li)量(liang)(liang)遞(di)次(ci)推(tui)進的(de)(de),或者說,在老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡化(hua)發展的(de)(de)不同(tong)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)(duan),推(tui)動(dong)(dong)老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡化(hua)的(de)(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)量(liang)(liang)并不相同(tong)。據此,可以把老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡化(hua)過程劃(hua)分(fen)(fen)為前(qian)期階(jie)段(duan)(duan)(duan)、中期階(jie)段(duan)(duan)(duan)和(he)后期階(jie)段(duan)(duan)(duan)。在老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡化(hua)的(de)(de)前(qian)期階(jie)段(duan)(duan)(duan),推(tui)動(dong)(dong)老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡化(hua)的(de)(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)量(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)生育率的(de)(de)下(xia)降,中期階(jie)段(duan)(duan)(duan)的(de)(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)量(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口的(de)(de)增長,后期階(jie)段(duan)(duan)(duan)的(de)(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)量(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)長壽(shou)。
對(dui)于中國而言,老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)前(qian)(qian)期(qi)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)是(shi)從(cong)1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)(kai)始(shi)到(dao)(dao)2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)結(jie)束這(zhe)(zhe)里的(de)(de)(de)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)劃分(fen)(fen)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)份并非精確時(shi)間的(de)(de)(de)表達(da),而是(shi)大致的(de)(de)(de)估計(ji)。即使如此(ci)(ci)(ci),也(ye)有一(yi)(yi)些依(yi)據(ju):第(di)(di)一(yi)(yi),中國的(de)(de)(de)生育率(lv)(lv)轉變(bian)從(cong)1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)(kai)始(shi),而老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)也(ye)是(shi)在這(zhe)(zhe)一(yi)(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)起步(bu)。第(di)(di)二(er),從(cong)2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)(kai)始(shi),抗日(ri)戰爭(zheng)結(jie)束后出(chu)生的(de)(de)(de)人(ren)開(kai)(kai)始(shi)進(jin)(jin)入老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),緊跟其后是(shi)1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代出(chu)生高(gao)(gao)峰隊列陸續進(jin)(jin)入老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)時(shi)期(qi)65歲及以上(shang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)總共(gong)增(zeng)加了(le)(le)8320萬,平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)每年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈增(zeng)208萬,而15歲以下少兒人(ren)口(kou)減(jian)(jian)少了(le)(le)9017萬,平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)每年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈減(jian)(jian)225萬。因此(ci)(ci)(ci),這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)時(shi)期(qi)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)主導(dao)力(li)量是(shi)1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)(kai)始(shi)的(de)(de)(de)生育率(lv)(lv)轉變(bian)及后來的(de)(de)(de)低生育率(lv)(lv)。在此(ci)(ci)(ci)期(qi)間,老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)水平(ping)(ping)從(cong)3.76%提(ti)高(gao)(gao)到(dao)(dao)8.40%,平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)每年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)0.12個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點。老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)中期(qi)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)是(shi)從(cong)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)(kai)始(shi)到(dao)(dao)2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左(zuo)右結(jie)束,從(cong)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)(kai)始(shi),中國老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)進(jin)(jin)入了(le)(le)一(yi)(yi)個(ge)快速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)時(shi)期(qi),2010~2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)將(jiang)總共(gong)增(zeng)加2.24億人(ren),年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)率(lv)(lv)為(wei)3.62%,平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)每年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈增(zeng)746萬。在此(ci)(ci)(ci)期(qi)間,1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代和(he)1960年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代出(chu)生高(gao)(gao)峰隊列將(jiang)全部進(jin)(jin)入老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)。在老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)快速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)同時(shi),總人(ren)口(kou)將(jiang)在2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左(zuo)右開(kai)(kai)始(shi)出(chu)現負增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang),這(zhe)(zhe)兩種相(xiang)反(fan)的(de)(de)(de)變(bian)化(hua)趨(qu)勢進(jin)(jin)一(yi)(yi)步(bu)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)了(le)(le)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)發展速(su)度,老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)水平(ping)(ping)在2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)達(da)到(dao)(dao)23.84%,平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)每年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)0.51個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點。與前(qian)(qian)一(yi)(yi)個(ge)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)相(xiang)比,中期(qi)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)速(su)度提(ti)高(gao)(gao)了(le)(le)3倍(bei)。因此(ci)(ci)(ci),中國老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)動力(li)機制(zhi)已經轉變(bian)為(wei)以老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)為(wei)主導(dao)力(li)量。
到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右,中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)將進(jin)(jin)入(ru)(ru)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)后期階(jie)段,即以(yi)(yi)長壽(shou)(shou)為(wei)主(zhu)導力量的(de)(de)(de)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)階(jie)段,這(zhe)個(ge)階(jie)段也可(ke)(ke)稱為(wei)高齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)階(jie)段。到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)目(mu)前(qian)為(wei)止,學(xue)術界對于(yu)高齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)或(huo)者高齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社(she)(she)會(hui)的(de)(de)(de)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)還沒有一(yi)(yi)個(ge)明(ming)確的(de)(de)(de)定(ding)(ding)義,或(huo)者被普(pu)遍接受的(de)(de)(de)定(ding)(ding)義。考慮到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)這(zhe)個(ge)情況(kuang),可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)基于(yu)歷史(shi)觀(guan)察歸納出可(ke)(ke)用(yong)于(yu)判斷的(de)(de)(de)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)。我們選(xuan)(xuan)擇了(le)兩個(ge)參(can)照(zhao)(zhao)系(xi),一(yi)(yi)個(ge)是(shi)(shi)高收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)平均(jun)水平,另一(yi)(yi)個(ge)是(shi)(shi)目(mu)前(qian)世界上(shang)(shang)最長壽(shou)(shou)的(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)日本(ben)(ben)。之(zhi)所以(yi)(yi)選(xuan)(xuan)擇這(zhe)兩個(ge)參(can)照(zhao)(zhao)系(xi),是(shi)(shi)因(yin)為(wei)其(qi)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)進(jin)(jin)程遠遠走在(zai)(zai)(zai)了(le)其(qi)他國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)和(he)(he)地區的(de)(de)(de)前(qian)面,并可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)呈(cheng)現一(yi)(yi)個(ge)完整的(de)(de)(de)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)過程。選(xuan)(xuan)取的(de)(de)(de)參(can)照(zhao)(zhao)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)包括四個(ge):(1)出生時(shi)(shi)平均(jun)預(yu)(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命達到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)80歲(sui);(2)60歲(sui)時(shi)(shi)平均(jun)預(yu)(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命達到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)25歲(sui);(3)80歲(sui)及以(yi)(yi)上(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)在(zai)(zai)(zai)總人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)中(zhong)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)達到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)5%;(4)80歲(sui)及以(yi)(yi)上(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)在(zai)(zai)(zai)65歲(sui)及以(yi)(yi)上(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)中(zhong)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)達到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)25%。日本(ben)(ben)是(shi)(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同時(shi)(shi)滿(man)(man)足(zu)了(le)上(shang)(shang)述條件;而高收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2005年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)滿(man)(man)足(zu)了(le)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(3)的(de)(de)(de)條件,在(zai)(zai)(zai)2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)滿(man)(man)足(zu)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(4)的(de)(de)(de)條件,并分(fen)別(bie)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)(he)2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)滿(man)(man)足(zu)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(1)的(de)(de)(de)條件和(he)(he)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(2)的(de)(de)(de)條件。如果稍(shao)微放松指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(2)的(de)(de)(de)條件高收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)2015~2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)60歲(sui)時(shi)(shi)平均(jun)預(yu)(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命為(wei)24.5歲(sui),高收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)整體(ti)上(shang)(shang)應該是(shi)(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)進(jin)(jin)入(ru)(ru)高齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社(she)(she)會(hui)。日本(ben)(ben)和(he)(he)高收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)(de)情況(kuang)表明(ming),上(shang)(shang)述4項指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)水平之(zhi)間具有高度的(de)(de)(de)協同性(xing)和(he)(he)一(yi)(yi)致(zhi)性(xing),因(yin)此可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)作為(wei)高齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)或(huo)高齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社(she)(she)會(hui)的(de)(de)(de)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun)。按照(zhao)(zhao)這(zhe)個(ge)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)準(zhun),中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)將在(zai)(zai)(zai)2040~2045年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)間進(jin)(jin)入(ru)(ru)高齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社(she)(she)會(hui),根據(ju)聯合國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)中(zhong)方案預(yu)(yu)測,2040~2045年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)出生時(shi)(shi)平均(jun)預(yu)(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命為(wei)80.34歲(sui),60歲(sui)時(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)平均(jun)預(yu)(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命為(wei)22.87歲(sui);80歲(sui)及以(yi)(yi)上(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)在(zai)(zai)(zai)總人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)中(zhong)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)于(yu)2041年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)達到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)5.15%,在(zai)(zai)(zai)65歲(sui)及以(yi)(yi)上(shang)(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)于(yu)2045年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)達到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)24.9%。
(五)城鎮化已進入中后期發展階段
按照(zhao)國(guo)際經(jing)驗,人(ren)口城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化進(jin)(jin)程(cheng)可以劃(hua)分為(wei)(wei)三個(ge)發展階(jie)段(duan),在達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)50%之前是(shi)前期階(jie)段(duan),從(cong)50%到(dao)(dao)70%是(shi)中期階(jie)段(duan),從(cong)70%到(dao)(dao)80%是(shi)后(hou)期階(jie)段(duan)。城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)(ping)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)80%即標(biao)志著城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化的(de)完成(cheng)。根(gen)(gen)據聯合(he)國(guo)(United Nations,2018)的(de)估計,2015年(nian)發達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)國(guo)家(jia)(jia)人(ren)口城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化的(de)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)(ping)為(wei)(wei)78.1%,高(gao)收入(ru)國(guo)家(jia)(jia)的(de)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)(ping)為(wei)(wei)80.9%。一(yi)些國(guo)家(jia)(jia)在達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)這個(ge)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)(ping)后(hou)還會(hui)進(jin)(jin)一(yi)步提高(gao),例如2015年(nian)比(bi)利時達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)97.9%,日本達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)91.4%,丹麥達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)87.5%,瑞(rui)典達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)86.6%。還有一(yi)些人(ren)口規模很(hen)小(xiao)或地(di)理條件特(te)殊的(de)國(guo)家(jia)(jia)和地(di)區(qu)超過(guo)(guo)90%甚至達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)100%。此外,拉美的(de)烏拉圭(95.5%)、阿根(gen)(gen)廷(91.5%)、委(wei)內瑞(rui)拉(88.2%)、智利(87.4%)、巴(ba)西(85.8%)等國(guo)的(de)城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)(ping)也非常高(gao),但這些國(guo)家(jia)(jia)存(cun)在著人(ren)口過(guo)(guo)度(du)城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化問(wen)題(ti)。
中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)化進程(cheng)自1978年(nian)(nian)(nian)啟動,從(cong)2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi)加速(su),到2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)總(zong)共提高了(le)40個百分(fen)點。按照2000~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)發(fa)展速(su)度,2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)化水(shui)平可以(yi)達(da)到60%。這標(biao)志著(zhu)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)化進程(cheng)目前已進入中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)發(fa)展階(jie)段的(de)(de)后半期(qi)(qi),根據聯合(he)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)預測(United Nations,2018),中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)發(fa)展階(jie)段將在(zai)2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)結(jie)束,屆(jie)時的(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)化水(shui)平為70%;從(cong)2031年(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)(shi)進入后期(qi)(qi)發(fa)展階(jie)段,在(zai)2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)達(da)到80%,這意味著(zhu)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)化進程(cheng)還(huan)需(xu)要30年(nian)(nian)(nian)左右才(cai)能結(jie)束。
(六)人口負增長時代即將到來
對(dui)于(yu)中國的(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)而言,21世紀上半葉發生(sheng)的(de)(de)最大的(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)事(shi)件莫過于(yu)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)負增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)時代(dai)的(de)(de)到(dao)(dao)來。根據聯合(he)國中方案(an)總和(he)(he)生(sheng)育率設(she)定為2015~2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.63,2020~2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.66,2025~2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.69,2030~2035年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.71,2035~2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.72,2040~2045年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.74,2045~2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.75,2050~2055年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.76,2055~2060年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.77,2060~2065年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.77。預測,中國人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)將(jiang)在(zai)2029年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)達到(dao)(dao)峰(feng)值14.42億(yi),從2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始進入(ru)持續的(de)(de)負增(zeng)長(chang)(chang),2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少到(dao)(dao)13.64億(yi),2065年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少到(dao)(dao)12.48億(yi),即(ji)縮減(jian)到(dao)(dao)1996年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)規模(mo)(mo)。如(ru)果(guo)總和(he)(he)生(sheng)育率一直保持在(zai)1.6的(de)(de)水平,人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)負增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)將(jiang)提前到(dao)(dao)2027年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)出(chu)現,2065年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)減(jian)少到(dao)(dao)11.72億(yi),相當于(yu)1990年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)規模(mo)(mo)。
長(chang)(chang)期持(chi)續的人口(kou)負增長(chang)(chang)究(jiu)竟會(hui)造成(cheng)怎樣的社會(hui)經(jing)濟后果?從理論邏輯上看,長(chang)(chang)期的人口(kou)衰退,尤其是伴隨著(zhu)不斷(duan)加劇的老(lao)齡(ling)化,勢必(bi)會(hui)帶來(lai)非常不利的社會(hui)經(jing)濟后果。中國的人口(kou)負增長(chang)(chang)已經(jing)勢不可當,從現在開始亟須開展(zhan)研究(jiu)和進行政策儲備。
互聯網使用對中低收入人群有顯著影響
研究發現:第(di)一(yi),個體有(you)(you)互(hu)聯網(wang)使(shi)用行(xing)為可以使(shi)個體年(nian)勞(lao)動收入(ru)增加46.52%;第(di)二,互(hu)聯網(wang)使(shi)用對(dui)中低收入(ru)人(ren)(ren)群有(you)(you)顯(xian)(xian)著影響,對(dui)高收入(ru)人(ren)(ren)群沒有(you)(you)顯(xian)(xian)著影響。具體來說(shuo),使(shi)用互(hu)聯網(wang)讓處在25%和(he)50%分位數上(shang)的就業(ye)者(zhe)(zhe)的年(nian)工資水(shui)平(ping)分別提高了11950.23元和(he)8371.39元;第(di)三(san),使(shi)用互(hu)聯網(wang)的中高技能勞(lao)動者(zhe)(zhe)收入(ru)提高了83.39%,遠高于總體樣本回歸結(jie)果,使(shi)用互(hu)聯網(wang)對(dui)低技能勞(lao)動者(zhe)(zhe)沒有(you)(you)顯(xian)(xian)著影響。
因此(ci),綠皮(pi)書建議:第一,降低(di)數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)化門檻(jian)以提升勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)者收入。由于我(wo)國的(de)區(qu)域發展(zhan)不平衡,勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)者受教(jiao)育水平和(he)(he)互(hu)(hu)聯網(wang)(wang)使用能(neng)(neng)力差異巨大,我(wo)國應(ying)(ying)當(dang)在國家層面(mian)降低(di)數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)化門檻(jian),提升低(di)技(ji)能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)者對(dui)于互(hu)(hu)聯網(wang)(wang)的(de)基本(ben)使用能(neng)(neng)力,開(kai)展(zhan)大量的(de)互(hu)(hu)聯網(wang)(wang)技(ji)能(neng)(neng)培訓(xun)課程(cheng),降低(di)不同群體間的(de)“數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)鴻溝”。同時,隨著新(xin)經(jing)濟(ji)和(he)(he)新(xin)就業的(de)迅猛發展(zhan),新(xin)的(de)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)保護法律亟待出(chu)臺,新(xin)型勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)關系有(you)待確(que)立。但在新(xin)的(de)法律法規和(he)(he)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策文件的(de)干(gan)預(yu)(yu)過程(cheng)中要警惕政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)府對(dui)市(shi)場(chang)經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)過度干(gan)預(yu)(yu)。在新(xin)經(jing)濟(ji)發展(zhan)中,政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)府應(ying)(ying)當(dang)扮演(yan)更重要的(de)角色,減少直接干(gan)預(yu)(yu),側(ce)重于為市(shi)場(chang)提供必要的(de)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策與(yu)制度條件。
第(di)二,擴大高等教育規(gui)模和(he)創新能(neng)(neng)力(li)以(yi)提升勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)技能(neng)(neng)。從(cong)本文研(yan)究可以(yi)看出(chu),互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)使(shi)(shi)用為(wei)高技能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)提供(gong)(gong)更(geng)加(jia)(jia)豐富(fu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)就業(ye)(ye)機會和(he)靈活(huo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)就業(ye)(ye)選擇,并(bing)在(zai)一(yi)定程度(du)(du)上惡化(hua)了低(di)技能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)(de)就業(ye)(ye)空間。互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)加(jia)(jia)劇了不同(tong)技能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)間的(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)構(gou)性失衡,隨著(zhu)(zhu)互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)規(gui)模的(de)(de)(de)(de)擴大、個(ge)體互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)使(shi)(shi)用和(he)數字人(ren)(ren)力(li)資本的(de)(de)(de)(de)提高,中(zhong)高技能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)在(zai)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)市(shi)場上獲得更(geng)高的(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)收益,而互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展對于(yu)低(di)技能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)收入(ru)提高并(bing)不顯著(zhu)(zhu)。考慮(lv)到低(di)技能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)更(geng)可能(neng)(neng)被(bei)技術(shu)偏(pian)向型的(de)(de)(de)(de)互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)所替代(dai),無(wu)論是(shi)對于(yu)沒有進入(ru)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)市(shi)場的(de)(de)(de)(de)低(di)學(xue)歷潛在(zai)就業(ye)(ye)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)還是(shi)低(di)技能(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)來(lai)說,互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)時(shi)代(dai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)格局都不利于(yu)他們(men)的(de)(de)(de)(de)就業(ye)(ye)前景。因此,隨著(zhu)(zhu)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)出(chu)生率增速(su)減緩,人(ren)(ren)口(kou)老齡化(hua)增速(su)加(jia)(jia)快(kuai),只有進一(yi)步擴大高等教育規(gui)模,才(cai)(cai)能(neng)(neng)改善勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)市(shi)場人(ren)(ren)才(cai)(cai)技能(neng)(neng)結(jie)構(gou),為(wei)“中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)制造2025”和(he)高端服(fu)務業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)轉型提供(gong)(gong)足夠的(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)(cai)需求(qiu)。同(tong)時(shi),隨著(zhu)(zhu)技術(shu)進步速(su)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)和(he)互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)(wang)普及程度(du)(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)提升,我國(guo)(guo)高等教育應當更(geng)加(jia)(jia)重(zhong)視(shi)培(pei)養(yang)創新能(neng)(neng)力(li),在(zai)提升技能(neng)(neng)教育的(de)(de)(de)(de)同(tong)時(shi),培(pei)育更(geng)多具(ju)有創新精神(shen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)高等本科教育人(ren)(ren)才(cai)(cai)和(he)具(ju)有工匠精神(shen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)高等職(zhi)業(ye)(ye)教育人(ren)(ren)才(cai)(cai),把“創新能(neng)(neng)力(li)”作為(wei)改善勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)市(shi)場技能(neng)(neng)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)(cai)結(jie)構(gou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)中(zhong)之(zhi)重(zhong)。
轉自社科文獻: