2019年1月(yue)3日,中國(guo)社會科(ke)學院人(ren)口與勞動經濟研(yan)究所(suo)與社會科(ke)學文獻(xian)出(chu)版社共同(tong)舉(ju)辦(ban)的《人(ren)口與勞動綠皮書:中國(guo)人(ren)口與勞動問題報告No.19》發布會在北京舉(ju)行。
2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)是(shi)改(gai)革(ge)開放40周年(nian)(nian)(nian)。在經(jing)濟改(gai)革(ge)和(he)對(dui)外開放的(de)(de)(de)推動下,中國(guo)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)發(fa)展取(qu)得了(le)(le)歷史性的(de)(de)(de)巨大進(jin)步,完成了(le)(le)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)轉變,人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)質量(liang)和(he)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)城鎮化(hua)水平大幅度提(ti)高,人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)流動高度活躍(yue),為社(she)會(hui)經(jing)濟發(fa)展貢獻了(le)(le)豐厚的(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)紅利。進(jin)入21世紀以(yi)來(lai),由于“劉易斯轉折點”的(de)(de)(de)出現(xian),當前(qian)勞(lao)動力(li)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)處于停滯;勞(lao)動年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)加(jia)速(su)減少和(he)老(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)加(jia)速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang),導(dao)致(zhi)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)養比將(jiang)會(hui)持續提(ti)高;以(yi)老(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)為主導(dao)力(li)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)老(lao)齡化(hua)趨勢日(ri)益加(jia)劇。這些(xie)趨勢性的(de)(de)(de)轉變不僅(jin)直接改(gai)變了(le)(le)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)發(fa)展面臨的(de)(de)(de)形勢和(he)任(ren)務,同時(shi)也給社(she)會(hui)經(jing)濟發(fa)展帶來(lai)巨大而深遠(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)。
2019年(nian)是新中(zhong)國(guo)成立70周年(nian),也是實現全面建成小康社會(hui)目標的關(guan)鍵一(yi)年(nian)。就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)形(xing)勢穩定至關(guan)重(zhong)要(yao),就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)工(gong)作(zuo)應(ying)該重(zhong)點(dian)關(guan)注(zhu)以下幾個方面問題:一(yi)是妥善應(ying)對過(guo)去幾年(nian)化(hua)解產能過(guo)剩和地(di)方債務風險過(guo)程中(zhong)積(ji)(ji)累的潛在就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)影(ying)響,積(ji)(ji)極做(zuo)好就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)轉(zhuan)移、技能培訓和社會(hui)保障相關(guan)工(gong)作(zuo);二是監測(ce)貧困人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)和脫貧家庭的就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)狀況,繼(ji)續(xu)推進就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)扶貧工(gong)作(zuo),增強脫貧攻堅成效;三是關(guan)注(zhu)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)凈(jing)流出地(di)區、資源枯(ku)竭地(di)區等就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)形(xing)勢,防止(zhi)出現局(ju)部性大規模失業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye);四(si)是繼(ji)續(xu)做(zuo)好應(ying)屆高校畢業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生、退伍軍人(ren)(ren)(ren)等重(zhong)點(dian)群(qun)體(ti)的就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)工(gong)作(zuo),同時關(guan)注(zhu)退休返聘或再就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)人(ren)(ren)(ren)員、農(nong)村(cun)遷(qian)移老年(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)再就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)等新現象,落(luo)實相關(guan)就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)政(zheng)策。
為應對數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)對就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)市場和(he)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)制(zhi)度所帶(dai)來的(de)(de)各項挑戰(zhan),我(wo)國要(yao)(yao)做(zuo)好數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)大環境下(xia)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)服務的(de)(de)頂(ding)層設(she)計,推動(dong)從工業(ye)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)的(de)(de)“千(qian)人(ren)一面(mian)”到數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)下(xia)“千(qian)人(ren)千(qian)面(mian)”的(de)(de)轉(zhuan)變,實現人(ren)口(kou)紅利向(xiang)人(ren)才紅利的(de)(de)跨越(yue)發展。為了激發數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)的(de)(de)全部潛力(li),政府(fu)要(yao)(yao)完善就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)相關法律和(he)社會保障(zhang)制(zhi)度,提(ti)高(gao)制(zhi)度和(he)政策的(de)(de)靈活性與普惠性;要(yao)(yao)重視數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)人(ren)才培養(yang)、數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)技能(neng)(neng)培訓(xun),加強數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)人(ren)力(li)資源(yuan)開發;要(yao)(yao)構(gou)建全國統一的(de)(de)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)信(xin)息服務網絡,優化(hua)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)服務體(ti)系;要(yao)(yao)努力(li)發展新產(chan)業(ye)、新業(ye)態,充分發掘數(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)(zi)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)的(de)(de)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)創造能(neng)(neng)力(li)。
中國人口發展面臨的六大趨勢性重大轉折
進入21世(shi)紀以來,中(zhong)國(guo)人口已經出現了(le)幾個重大(da)轉折,在(zai)未來一(yi)個時(shi)期(qi)內還將出現新的轉折性變(bian)化。這些趨(qu)勢性的轉變(bian)不僅直接改變(bian)了(le)人口發(fa)展(zhan)面臨的形勢和任(ren)務(wu),同時(shi)也給社(she)會經濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)帶來巨大(da)而深遠的影響。
(一)勞動力變化趨勢的轉折
在(zai)過去(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一個(ge)時期里,中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)歷了(le)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)快速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長,勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)無限供(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)(gei)曾經(jing)(jing)(jing)是中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)高(gao)速(su)發展的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要條件(jian),也曾經(jing)(jing)(jing)是中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)比(bi)較優勢(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要基(ji)礎。進(jin)入21世紀后(hou),勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)(gei)發生(sheng)了(le)重(zhong)大變化。首(shou)先(xian)是“劉易斯(si)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折點”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)出現(xian)(xian)(xian):2003年(nian)(nian)(nian)出現(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“民工荒(huang)”標志(zhi)著中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)無限供(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)(gei)時代(dai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)束(蔡昉,2008),都陽和王美艷(2010)利用(yong)2005年(nian)(nian)(nian)1%人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)抽樣調查數(shu)(shu)據,并在(zai)考慮農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)結(jie)構和個(ge)體特征的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況下對農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)剩余勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)進(jin)行了(le)估(gu)計,他(ta)們(men)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研究(jiu)結(jie)果顯示,在(zai)現(xian)(xian)(xian)有的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)市場狀況和制度環境下,農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)可供(gong)(gong)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)移(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)只剩下4300多(duo)萬(wan)。根據國(guo)家統計局公布(bu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)數(shu)(shu)據,2010~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)間農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民工數(shu)(shu)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)加了(le)3900萬(wan),其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)外出農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民工數(shu)(shu)量(liang)僅增(zeng)(zeng)加了(le)1850萬(wan)。“民工荒(huang)”在(zai)東部沿(yan)海地(di)(di)區蔓延(yan)之后(hou),其他(ta)地(di)(di)區勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)市場也出現(xian)(xian)(xian)了(le)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民工供(gong)(gong)不(bu)應求的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)(xian)象(xiang),農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民工的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工資(zi)水平(ping)逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)上(shang)漲,這(zhe)些證據都表明(ming)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)到(dao)達(da)了(le)“劉易斯(si)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折點”(蔡昉、都陽,2011)。其次是勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)開(kai)始減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao):2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(16~64歲(sui))比(bi)前一年(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)了(le)160萬(wan),這(zhe)標志(zhi)著中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)潛(qian)在(zai)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)資(zi)源縮減(jian)(jian)時代(dai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)到(dao)來(lai)。到(dao)2017年(nian)(nian)(nian),勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)總共減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)了(le)578萬(wan),隨著1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)出生(sheng)高(gao)峰隊列陸續(xu)超出勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling),勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)將(jiang)(jiang)會(hui)加速(su)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)。聯合國(guo)(United Nations,2017)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)方案預測結(jie)果顯示,中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)在(zai)未來(lai)很長一個(ge)時期內將(jiang)(jiang)持續(xu)地(di)(di)加速(su)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao),到(dao)2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)2億人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)。勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)為(wei)負(fu)增(zeng)(zeng)長對于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)而言是一個(ge)重(zhong)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)變數(shu)(shu),不(bu)僅給(gei)(gei)(gei)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)市場供(gong)(gong)求關系帶來(lai)結(jie)構性轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變,同時也對各(ge)種相關制度的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)改革提出了(le)迫切(qie)要求。
(二)人口撫養比變化趨勢的轉折
人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)撫養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)變化的(de)轉折(zhe)點出現(xian)于2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),撫養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)從前一(yi)(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)34.2%提(ti)高(gao)(gao)到(dao)34.4%,從而(er)終結了(le)(le)(le)(le)持(chi)續(xu)(xu)了(le)(le)(le)(le)30多年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)下(xia)降過(guo)程。導致這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)轉折(zhe)性變化的(de)直接原因有(you)兩個(ge)。一(yi)(yi)個(ge)原因是勞(lao)動年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)緩慢,2005~2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)總共增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)了(le)(le)(le)(le)6.5%,2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)僅僅增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)了(le)(le)(le)(le)0.35%和0.1%。15~64歲勞(lao)動年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)占總人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)的(de)比(bi)(bi)重的(de)轉折(zhe)發(fa)生在2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),雖然比(bi)(bi)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)峰值(74.4%)僅僅降低(di)了(le)(le)(le)(le)0.3個(ge)百分點,但這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)轉折(zhe)的(de)意義重大。2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)勞(lao)動年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)占比(bi)(bi)降到(dao)73.0%,使得這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)下(xia)降趨(qu)勢(shi)得到(dao)確認。另一(yi)(yi)個(ge)原因是老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)出現(xian)了(le)(le)(le)(le)較快(kuai)的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang),2005~2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)了(le)(le)(le)(le)21.8%,年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)率(lv)為3.28%,遠遠超(chao)過(guo)勞(lao)動年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)速度(du)。2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以后老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)率(lv)進一(yi)(yi)步提(ti)高(gao)(gao),2011~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)率(lv)達到(dao)4.26%,而(er)勞(lao)動年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)自(zi)2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)起轉為負增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang),這(zhe)(zhe)使得人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)撫養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)在2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)到(dao)37%。從未(wei)來發(fa)展趨(qu)勢(shi)看,由于勞(lao)動年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)加(jia)速減少(shao)和老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)加(jia)速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang),人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)撫養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)將會(hui)持(chi)續(xu)(xu)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)。此外,政策(ce)調整(zheng)后的(de)生育率(lv)回升會(hui)在一(yi)(yi)定(ding)程度(du)上(shang)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)少(shao)兒撫養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi),因此人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)撫養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)的(de)幅度(du)將會(hui)進一(yi)(yi)步加(jia)大。根(gen)據聯合國(guo)中方案(an)預測結果,未(wei)來的(de)40年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)里,少(shao)兒撫養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)基本(ben)上(shang)是在22~25之(zhi)間窄幅波(bo)動,而(er)老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)撫養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)在2060年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)之(zhi)前一(yi)(yi)直保持(chi)上(shang)升狀態(tai),并在2028年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右超(chao)過(guo)少(shao)兒撫養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi),成為決定(ding)總撫養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)變化趨(qu)勢(shi)的(de)主導因素。
在其他條(tiao)件一(yi)(yi)定的(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)(qing)況下(xia),人(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高意味(wei)著人(ren)口(kou)(kou)生產(chan)(chan)性的(de)(de)(de)(de)下(xia)降,邊際人(ren)口(kou)(kou)紅利為負(fu)(fu)。特別需要注意的(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)(shi),人(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高有(you)兩(liang)(liang)種情(qing)(qing)況,其一(yi)(yi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)由少(shao)兒撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)主(zhu)(zhu)導的(de)(de)(de)(de)總撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高,其二是(shi)(shi)(shi)由老年撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)主(zhu)(zhu)導的(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)總撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高。或者(zhe)說,同樣水平的(de)(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi),但內部結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)不(bu)同,一(yi)(yi)種結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)是(shi)(shi)(shi)以(yi)負(fu)(fu)擔(dan)少(shao)兒人(ren)口(kou)(kou)為主(zhu)(zhu),另一(yi)(yi)種結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)是(shi)(shi)(shi)以(yi)負(fu)(fu)擔(dan)老年人(ren)為主(zhu)(zhu)。例如,2032年中(zhong)國(guo)人(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)將(jiang)回(hui)升到51%左右(you),與(yu)1994年的(de)(de)(de)(de)水平相當,但是(shi)(shi)(shi)1994年的(de)(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)中(zhong),少(shao)兒撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)占到83.4%,而(er)2032年的(de)(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)中(zhong),老年撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)占到56%。這(zhe)兩(liang)(liang)種情(qing)(qing)況的(de)(de)(de)(de)社會(hui)經濟含(han)義有(you)很大差別,前者(zhe)是(shi)(shi)(shi)對未來生產(chan)(chan)力的(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資,后者(zhe)則是(shi)(shi)(shi)純(chun)粹的(de)(de)(de)(de)消費,對于公(gong)共支出(chu)而(er)言,這(zhe)兩(liang)(liang)種負(fu)(fu)擔(dan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)意義也完全不(bu)同。中(zhong)國(guo)未來撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)將(jiang)會(hui)在水平和結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)兩(liang)(liang)個(ge)(ge)維度上發生變化,在水平維度上將(jiang)會(hui)出(chu)現長達40年左右(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)上升趨勢,在結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)維度上將(jiang)發生從以(yi)少(shao)兒撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)為主(zhu)(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)轉(zhuan)變為以(yi)老年撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)為主(zhu)(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)(gou)。這(zhe)兩(liang)(liang)個(ge)(ge)維度的(de)(de)(de)(de)變化都會(hui)削弱人(ren)口(kou)(kou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)生產(chan)(chan)性。
(三)生育政策的轉向和生育率的回升
如同許(xu)多(duo)處于(yu)后(hou)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率轉變階段的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國家,中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國在完成了(le)轉變之后(hou)也很(hen)(hen)快走向了(le)很(hen)(hen)低(di)(di)水平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率。長(chang)期的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)低(di)(di)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率會導致(zhi)高(gao)度(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)老齡化(hua)和(he)人(ren)(ren)口衰退,從而給(gei)社會經(jing)濟帶來多(duo)重(zhong)(zhong)挑戰,因(yin)此世界上幾乎所(suo)有處于(yu)很(hen)(hen)低(di)(di)和(he)極(ji)低(di)(di)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)水平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國家都采(cai)取(qu)了(le)支(zhi)持和(he)鼓勵生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政策。對(dui)于(yu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率轉變非(fei)常(chang)迅速的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國而言,如果(guo)(guo)低(di)(di)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率不能很(hen)(hen)快得到(dao)扭(niu)轉,將會面(mian)(mian)臨(lin)比(bi)(bi)其(qi)他國家更為(wei)嚴峻的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)局(ju)(ju)面(mian)(mian)。2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)11月,《中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)共中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)央(yang)關(guan)于(yu)全(quan)(quan)(quan)面(mian)(mian)深化(hua)改革若干重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)問題的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)決定》提(ti)出(chu)(chu)(chu)“啟動(dong)實(shi)施一(yi)方是獨生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)子女的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)夫(fu)婦(fu)可(ke)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)兩(liang)個(ge)(ge)孩(hai)子的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政策”,2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)10月中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)共中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)央(yang)決定“全(quan)(quan)(quan)面(mian)(mian)實(shi)施一(yi)對(dui)夫(fu)婦(fu)可(ke)以生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)兩(liang)個(ge)(ge)孩(hai)子政策”。政策實(shi)施后(hou),雖然生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率提(ti)高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)幅度(du)不盡如人(ren)(ren)意,但也已經(jing)顯現(xian)出(chu)(chu)(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率對(dui)新生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)政策的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)積極(ji)反應(ying)。國家統計(ji)(ji)局(ju)(ju)根據全(quan)(quan)(quan)國人(ren)(ren)口變動(dong)抽樣調查數據的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)推算分(fen)析(xi)表明(ming),2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)二(er)(er)(er)孩(hai)出(chu)(chu)(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)數量大(da)幅上升(sheng),明(ming)顯高(gao)于(yu)“十二(er)(er)(er)五(wu)”時期平(ping)均(jun)水平(ping),2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)二(er)(er)(er)孩(hai)數量進一(yi)步上升(sheng)至(zhi)883萬人(ren)(ren),比(bi)(bi)2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增加(jia)了(le)162萬人(ren)(ren);二(er)(er)(er)孩(hai)占全(quan)(quan)(quan)部出(chu)(chu)(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)人(ren)(ren)口的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)達到(dao)51.2%,比(bi)(bi)2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)高(gao)了(le)11個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點。在全(quan)(quan)(quan)部出(chu)(chu)(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)嬰(ying)兒(er)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),二(er)(er)(er)孩(hai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)例明(ming)顯提(ti)高(gao),并且超過了(le)50%。根據世界銀行估計(ji)(ji),中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)總和(he)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率從1996年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始一(yi)直低(di)(di)于(yu)1.6,直到(dao)2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)回升(sheng)到(dao)1.6,2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)為(wei)1.62。如果(guo)(guo)這個(ge)(ge)趨勢能夠得到(dao)延續,那么中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)率就可(ke)以回升(sheng)到(dao)一(yi)個(ge)(ge)相對(dui)安全(quan)(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)水平(ping)。
(四)老齡化動力機制的轉換
老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)進程并(bing)非(fei)只(zhi)由(you)一(yi)種力量(liang)(liang)推(tui)(tui)(tui)(tui)動,因為(wei)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)是以老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)口(kou)占(zhan)總人(ren)(ren)口(kou)比重來衡(heng)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de),老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)是老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)口(kou)與其他年齡(ling)(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)相對(dui)變化(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結果(guo)。因此,有(you)三種力量(liang)(liang)會推(tui)(tui)(tui)(tui)動老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua),第(di)(di)一(yi)個力量(liang)(liang)是生育率下降(jiang)導(dao)致出生人(ren)(ren)口(kou)減少,此時即(ji)使(shi)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)口(kou)增長緩(huan)慢甚(shen)至沒有(you)增長,老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)口(kou)比重也(ye)會提高(gao);第(di)(di)二個力量(liang)(liang)是老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)口(kou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增長;第(di)(di)三個力量(liang)(liang)是長壽,即(ji)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)存活的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)年齡(ling)(ling)(ling)更(geng)高(gao)。由(you)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)變化(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)在機(ji)理和(he)歷史邏輯(ji)所(suo)決定,一(yi)個人(ren)(ren)口(kou)群體的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)過程是分(fen)別由(you)不(bu)(bu)同(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)力量(liang)(liang)遞次推(tui)(tui)(tui)(tui)進的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de),或者說,在老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)發展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)同(tong)(tong)階(jie)段(duan),推(tui)(tui)(tui)(tui)動老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主導(dao)力量(liang)(liang)并(bing)不(bu)(bu)相同(tong)(tong)。據此,可以把(ba)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)過程劃分(fen)為(wei)前期(qi)(qi)階(jie)段(duan)、中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)階(jie)段(duan)和(he)后(hou)期(qi)(qi)階(jie)段(duan)。在老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)前期(qi)(qi)階(jie)段(duan),推(tui)(tui)(tui)(tui)動老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主導(dao)力量(liang)(liang)是生育率的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)下降(jiang),中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)階(jie)段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主導(dao)力量(liang)(liang)是老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)口(kou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增長,后(hou)期(qi)(qi)階(jie)段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主導(dao)力量(liang)(liang)是長壽。
對(dui)于中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)而言,老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化的(de)(de)(de)(de)前期(qi)階段(duan)(duan)是從(cong)1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)(shi)到(dao)(dao)2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)結束這(zhe)(zhe)里的(de)(de)(de)(de)階段(duan)(duan)劃分年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)份并(bing)非(fei)精確時間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)表達,而是大致的(de)(de)(de)(de)估計。即使如此(ci),也(ye)有一(yi)(yi)(yi)些依據:第一(yi)(yi)(yi),中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)育率轉變(bian)從(cong)1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)(shi),而老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化也(ye)是在(zai)(zai)這(zhe)(zhe)一(yi)(yi)(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)起(qi)步(bu)。第二,從(cong)2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)(shi),抗日戰(zhan)爭結束后(hou)出生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)(shi)進(jin)入老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),緊跟其后(hou)是1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代出生(sheng)高(gao)峰隊列(lie)陸(lu)續進(jin)入老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)時期(qi)65歲(sui)及(ji)以(yi)上(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)總(zong)(zong)共增(zeng)加了(le)8320萬,平均(jun)(jun)每(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈(jing)增(zeng)208萬,而15歲(sui)以(yi)下(xia)少(shao)兒人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)減少(shao)了(le)9017萬,平均(jun)(jun)每(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈(jing)減225萬。因此(ci),這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)時期(qi)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化的(de)(de)(de)(de)主導力(li)量是1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)育率轉變(bian)及(ji)后(hou)來的(de)(de)(de)(de)低生(sheng)育率。在(zai)(zai)此(ci)期(qi)間(jian),老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化水平從(cong)3.76%提(ti)高(gao)到(dao)(dao)8.40%,平均(jun)(jun)每(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)高(gao)0.12個(ge)百分點。老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化的(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)期(qi)階段(duan)(duan)是從(cong)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)(shi)到(dao)(dao)2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左(zuo)右(you)結束,從(cong)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)(shi),中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)進(jin)入了(le)一(yi)(yi)(yi)個(ge)快(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)長時期(qi),2010~2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)將總(zong)(zong)共增(zeng)加2.24億人(ren)(ren),年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)長率為(wei)3.62%,平均(jun)(jun)每(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈(jing)增(zeng)746萬。在(zai)(zai)此(ci)期(qi)間(jian),1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代和1960年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代出生(sheng)高(gao)峰隊列(lie)將全部進(jin)入老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)。在(zai)(zai)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)快(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)長的(de)(de)(de)(de)同時,總(zong)(zong)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)將在(zai)(zai)2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左(zuo)右(you)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)(shi)出現負增(zeng)長,這(zhe)(zhe)兩種相反(fan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)變(bian)化趨勢進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)提(ti)高(gao)了(le)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展速(su)度(du),老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化水平在(zai)(zai)2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)將達到(dao)(dao)23.84%,平均(jun)(jun)每(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)高(gao)0.51個(ge)百分點。與前一(yi)(yi)(yi)個(ge)階段(duan)(duan)相比,中(zhong)期(qi)階段(duan)(duan)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化速(su)度(du)提(ti)高(gao)了(le)3倍。因此(ci),中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)化的(de)(de)(de)(de)動力(li)機制(zhi)已經轉變(bian)為(wei)以(yi)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)增(zeng)長為(wei)主導力(li)量。
到(dao)(dao)2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)左右,中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)將進(jin)入(ru)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)的后(hou)期(qi)(qi)(qi)階段(duan),即(ji)以(yi)(yi)(yi)長壽為(wei)(wei)主導力(li)量(liang)的老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)階段(duan),這個(ge)(ge)階段(duan)也(ye)可(ke)稱為(wei)(wei)高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)階段(duan)。到(dao)(dao)目前為(wei)(wei)止(zhi),學術界(jie)對于高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)或者高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社會的標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)還沒有(you)(you)一(yi)個(ge)(ge)明確的定義,或者被普遍接受的定義。考(kao)慮到(dao)(dao)這個(ge)(ge)情(qing)況(kuang),可(ke)以(yi)(yi)(yi)基(ji)于歷史觀察(cha)歸納出(chu)可(ke)用于判斷(duan)的標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)。我們選(xuan)擇了(le)兩(liang)個(ge)(ge)參照系,一(yi)個(ge)(ge)是(shi)高(gao)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)平均水平,另一(yi)個(ge)(ge)是(shi)目前世界(jie)上(shang)最(zui)長壽的國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)日(ri)(ri)本(ben)。之(zhi)所以(yi)(yi)(yi)選(xuan)擇這兩(liang)個(ge)(ge)參照系,是(shi)因(yin)為(wei)(wei)其(qi)老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)進(jin)程遠(yuan)遠(yuan)走在(zai)(zai)(zai)了(le)其(qi)他國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)和(he)(he)(he)(he)地區的前面,并(bing)可(ke)以(yi)(yi)(yi)呈現(xian)一(yi)個(ge)(ge)完整的老(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)過程。選(xuan)取的參照指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)包括(kuo)四個(ge)(ge):(1)出(chu)生(sheng)時平均預(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)壽命(ming)達到(dao)(dao)80歲;(2)60歲時平均預(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)壽命(ming)達到(dao)(dao)25歲;(3)80歲及(ji)以(yi)(yi)(yi)上(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)在(zai)(zai)(zai)總(zong)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)占(zhan)比(bi)達到(dao)(dao)5%;(4)80歲及(ji)以(yi)(yi)(yi)上(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)在(zai)(zai)(zai)65歲及(ji)以(yi)(yi)(yi)上(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)占(zhan)比(bi)達到(dao)(dao)25%。日(ri)(ri)本(ben)是(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)同時滿(man)足了(le)上(shang)述條件(jian);而(er)高(gao)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2005年(nian)(nian)(nian)滿(man)足了(le)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(3)的條件(jian),在(zai)(zai)(zai)2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)滿(man)足指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(4)的條件(jian),并(bing)分別在(zai)(zai)(zai)2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)(he)(he)(he)2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)滿(man)足指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(1)的條件(jian)和(he)(he)(he)(he)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(2)的條件(jian)。如(ru)果稍微放松指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(2)的條件(jian)高(gao)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)2015~2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)60歲時平均預(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)壽命(ming)為(wei)(wei)24.5歲,高(gao)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)整體上(shang)應(ying)該是(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)進(jin)入(ru)高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社會。日(ri)(ri)本(ben)和(he)(he)(he)(he)高(gao)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)的情(qing)況(kuang)表明,上(shang)述4項指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)水平之(zhi)間具有(you)(you)高(gao)度的協(xie)同性(xing)和(he)(he)(he)(he)一(yi)致性(xing),因(yin)此可(ke)以(yi)(yi)(yi)作為(wei)(wei)高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)或高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社會的標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)。按照這個(ge)(ge)標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)(zhun),中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)將在(zai)(zai)(zai)2040~2045年(nian)(nian)(nian)間進(jin)入(ru)高(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)社會,根據聯(lian)合國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)方案(an)預(yu)測,2040~2045年(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)出(chu)生(sheng)時平均預(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)壽命(ming)為(wei)(wei)80.34歲,60歲時的平均預(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)壽命(ming)為(wei)(wei)22.87歲;80歲及(ji)以(yi)(yi)(yi)上(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)在(zai)(zai)(zai)總(zong)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)占(zhan)比(bi)于2041年(nian)(nian)(nian)達到(dao)(dao)5.15%,在(zai)(zai)(zai)65歲及(ji)以(yi)(yi)(yi)上(shang)老(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的占(zhan)比(bi)于2045年(nian)(nian)(nian)達到(dao)(dao)24.9%。
(五)城鎮化已進入中后期發展階段
按照國(guo)(guo)際經驗(yan),人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)進程(cheng)可(ke)以劃分為(wei)(wei)三個(ge)(ge)發展階段(duan)(duan),在(zai)達到(dao)50%之(zhi)前是(shi)前期(qi)階段(duan)(duan),從50%到(dao)70%是(shi)中期(qi)階段(duan)(duan),從70%到(dao)80%是(shi)后(hou)期(qi)階段(duan)(duan)。城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)達到(dao)80%即標志(zhi)著城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)的(de)(de)完(wan)成(cheng)。根據聯合國(guo)(guo)(United Nations,2018)的(de)(de)估計,2015年發達國(guo)(guo)家人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)的(de)(de)平(ping)(ping)均水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)為(wei)(wei)78.1%,高收入國(guo)(guo)家的(de)(de)平(ping)(ping)均水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)為(wei)(wei)80.9%。一些(xie)(xie)國(guo)(guo)家在(zai)達到(dao)這個(ge)(ge)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)后(hou)還會進一步提高,例如2015年比利時(shi)達到(dao)97.9%,日本達到(dao)91.4%,丹麥達到(dao)87.5%,瑞(rui)(rui)典達到(dao)86.6%。還有(you)一些(xie)(xie)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)規模很(hen)小或地理條件(jian)特殊(shu)的(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)家和地區超過90%甚至達到(dao)100%。此(ci)外,拉(la)美(mei)的(de)(de)烏(wu)拉(la)圭(gui)(95.5%)、阿根廷(ting)(91.5%)、委內瑞(rui)(rui)拉(la)(88.2%)、智(zhi)利(87.4%)、巴(ba)西(85.8%)等國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)也非(fei)常高,但這些(xie)(xie)國(guo)(guo)家存(cun)在(zai)著人(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)過度城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)問題。
中國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)人口城鎮(zhen)(zhen)化(hua)進(jin)(jin)(jin)程自1978年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)啟動,從2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始加(jia)速,到(dao)2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)總共(gong)提高了(le)40個百分點。按照2000~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)速度,2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)人口城鎮(zhen)(zhen)化(hua)水平可以(yi)達到(dao)60%。這標(biao)志著中國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)人口城鎮(zhen)(zhen)化(hua)進(jin)(jin)(jin)程目前已進(jin)(jin)(jin)入(ru)中期(qi)(qi)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)階段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)后半期(qi)(qi),根據聯合國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)預測(United Nations,2018),中期(qi)(qi)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)階段(duan)將在2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)結束,屆時的(de)(de)(de)人口城鎮(zhen)(zhen)化(hua)水平為70%;從2031年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始進(jin)(jin)(jin)入(ru)后期(qi)(qi)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)階段(duan),在2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)達到(dao)80%,這意(yi)味著中國(guo)(guo)(guo)人口城鎮(zhen)(zhen)化(hua)進(jin)(jin)(jin)程還需要(yao)30年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右才能結束。
(六)人口負增長時代即將到來
對于(yu)中(zhong)國(guo)的人(ren)口(kou)而言,21世紀上半葉發生的最(zui)大(da)的人(ren)口(kou)事件莫過于(yu)人(ren)口(kou)負(fu)(fu)增長時代的到(dao)(dao)來。根據(ju)聯合(he)國(guo)中(zhong)方案(an)總和生育率(lv)設(she)定為(wei)2015~2020年(nian)(nian)1.63,2020~2025年(nian)(nian)1.66,2025~2030年(nian)(nian)1.69,2030~2035年(nian)(nian)1.71,2035~2040年(nian)(nian)1.72,2040~2045年(nian)(nian)1.74,2045~2050年(nian)(nian)1.75,2050~2055年(nian)(nian)1.76,2055~2060年(nian)(nian)1.77,2060~2065年(nian)(nian)1.77。預測,中(zhong)國(guo)人(ren)口(kou)將在(zai)2029年(nian)(nian)達(da)到(dao)(dao)峰值14.42億(yi),從2030年(nian)(nian)開始(shi)進入持(chi)續(xu)的負(fu)(fu)增長,2050年(nian)(nian)減少到(dao)(dao)13.64億(yi),2065年(nian)(nian)減少到(dao)(dao)12.48億(yi),即(ji)縮減到(dao)(dao)1996年(nian)(nian)的規模。如果總和生育率(lv)一直(zhi)保持(chi)在(zai)1.6的水平(ping),人(ren)口(kou)負(fu)(fu)增長將提前到(dao)(dao)2027年(nian)(nian)出現,2065年(nian)(nian)人(ren)口(kou)減少到(dao)(dao)11.72億(yi),相當(dang)于(yu)1990年(nian)(nian)的規模。
長(chang)期(qi)持續的人口負(fu)增長(chang)究竟會造成怎樣的社會經濟后果?從(cong)理論邏輯上看,長(chang)期(qi)的人口衰退,尤其是伴隨著不(bu)斷加劇的老齡化(hua),勢(shi)必會帶來非常不(bu)利的社會經濟后果。中國的人口負(fu)增長(chang)已經勢(shi)不(bu)可當,從(cong)現(xian)在開(kai)始亟須開(kai)展研究和進行(xing)政策儲備。
互聯網使用對中低收入人群有顯著影響
研究發(fa)現:第一,個(ge)體有(you)互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網使(shi)用(yong)行為(wei)可以使(shi)個(ge)體年(nian)(nian)勞動收(shou)(shou)入增加46.52%;第二,互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網使(shi)用(yong)對中低收(shou)(shou)入人群(qun)有(you)顯著(zhu)(zhu)影響(xiang),對高收(shou)(shou)入人群(qun)沒有(you)顯著(zhu)(zhu)影響(xiang)。具體來(lai)說(shuo),使(shi)用(yong)互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網讓(rang)處在25%和50%分位數上(shang)的就業者的年(nian)(nian)工資水平(ping)分別提高了11950.23元(yuan)(yuan)和8371.39元(yuan)(yuan);第三(san),使(shi)用(yong)互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網的中高技能勞動者收(shou)(shou)入提高了83.39%,遠高于總體樣(yang)本回歸結果,使(shi)用(yong)互(hu)聯(lian)(lian)網對低技能勞動者沒有(you)顯著(zhu)(zhu)影響(xiang)。
因此,綠皮(pi)書建議:第一,降低數字(zi)化(hua)門(men)檻以(yi)提(ti)升勞動(dong)者(zhe)收入(ru)。由于我(wo)國的(de)(de)區(qu)域發展(zhan)不平衡,勞動(dong)者(zhe)受教(jiao)育水平和互聯網使用能(neng)力(li)差(cha)異巨(ju)大(da),我(wo)國應當在(zai)(zai)國家層面降低數字(zi)化(hua)門(men)檻,提(ti)升低技(ji)能(neng)勞動(dong)者(zhe)對于互聯網的(de)(de)基本使用能(neng)力(li),開展(zhan)大(da)量(liang)的(de)(de)互聯網技(ji)能(neng)培訓課程(cheng),降低不同群體間的(de)(de)“數字(zi)鴻(hong)溝”。同時,隨著(zhu)新(xin)經濟和新(xin)就業的(de)(de)迅猛發展(zhan),新(xin)的(de)(de)勞動(dong)保護法(fa)律亟待出(chu)臺,新(xin)型勞動(dong)關系有待確立(li)。但在(zai)(zai)新(xin)的(de)(de)法(fa)律法(fa)規和政策文件的(de)(de)干預過(guo)程(cheng)中要(yao)(yao)警惕政府(fu)對市場經濟的(de)(de)過(guo)度干預。在(zai)(zai)新(xin)經濟發展(zhan)中,政府(fu)應當扮(ban)演更重要(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)角色(se),減少直接干預,側(ce)重于為市場提(ti)供必要(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)政策與(yu)制(zhi)度條(tiao)件。
第二,擴(kuo)大高(gao)(gao)等(deng)教育(yu)規模(mo)和(he)創新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)以提(ti)(ti)升勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。從(cong)本(ben)文(wen)研究可(ke)以看出,互(hu)(hu)聯網使(shi)(shi)用為(wei)(wei)高(gao)(gao)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)提(ti)(ti)供(gong)更(geng)加(jia)豐(feng)富的(de)(de)就(jiu)業機會和(he)靈(ling)活的(de)(de)就(jiu)業選擇(ze),并在(zai)一(yi)(yi)定程(cheng)度上惡化(hua)了(le)低(di)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)的(de)(de)就(jiu)業空間。互(hu)(hu)聯網加(jia)劇了(le)不(bu)同(tong)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)間的(de)(de)結(jie)構(gou)性失(shi)衡,隨著(zhu)互(hu)(hu)聯網規模(mo)的(de)(de)擴(kuo)大、個體互(hu)(hu)聯網使(shi)(shi)用和(he)數字人力(li)(li)(li)(li)資(zi)本(ben)的(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao),中(zhong)高(gao)(gao)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)在(zai)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)上獲得更(geng)高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)收(shou)益,而(er)互(hu)(hu)聯網的(de)(de)發展對(dui)于(yu)低(di)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)的(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)收(shou)入提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)并不(bu)顯著(zhu)。考慮到低(di)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)更(geng)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)被技(ji)(ji)術(shu)偏向型的(de)(de)互(hu)(hu)聯網所替代,無論是(shi)對(dui)于(yu)沒(mei)有(you)進(jin)入勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)的(de)(de)低(di)學(xue)歷潛在(zai)就(jiu)業者(zhe)還是(shi)低(di)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)來說,互(hu)(hu)聯網時代的(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)格局都(dou)不(bu)利于(yu)他們的(de)(de)就(jiu)業前景(jing)。因(yin)此,隨著(zhu)人口出生(sheng)率增速減(jian)緩,人口老齡化(hua)增速加(jia)快,只有(you)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步擴(kuo)大高(gao)(gao)等(deng)教育(yu)規模(mo),才(cai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)改善勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)人才(cai)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)結(jie)構(gou),為(wei)(wei)“中(zhong)國(guo)制造2025”和(he)高(gao)(gao)端服務業的(de)(de)轉(zhuan)型提(ti)(ti)供(gong)足夠的(de)(de)人才(cai)需求。同(tong)時,隨著(zhu)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)進(jin)步速度的(de)(de)加(jia)快和(he)互(hu)(hu)聯網普及程(cheng)度的(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)升,我國(guo)高(gao)(gao)等(deng)教育(yu)應當更(geng)加(jia)重視(shi)培(pei)養創新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li),在(zai)提(ti)(ti)升技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)教育(yu)的(de)(de)同(tong)時,培(pei)育(yu)更(geng)多具(ju)有(you)創新精神的(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)等(deng)本(ben)科教育(yu)人才(cai)和(he)具(ju)有(you)工匠精神的(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)等(deng)職業教育(yu)人才(cai),把“創新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)”作為(wei)(wei)改善勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)技(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)人才(cai)結(jie)構(gou)的(de)(de)重中(zhong)之重。
轉自社科文獻: