2019年1月3日，中國社(she)會科(ke)學(xue)院人(ren)口與勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)經濟研究(jiu)所與社(she)會科(ke)學(xue)文獻(xian)出版社(she)共同舉辦(ban)的(de)《人(ren)口與勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)綠皮書：中國人(ren)口與勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)問題報告No.19》發(fa)布會在北(bei)京舉行。

2018年(nian)是改(gai)革開放40周年(nian)。在(zai)經濟改(gai)革和對(dui)外開放的(de)推動(dong)下，中國人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)發(fa)展(zhan)取得了(le)歷史性(xing)的(de)巨(ju)大進步，完成(cheng)了(le)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變(bian)，人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)質量和人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)城鎮化水(shui)平(ping)大幅度提高，人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)流(liu)動(dong)高度活躍(yue)，為(wei)社(she)會(hui)經濟發(fa)展(zhan)貢獻了(le)豐厚的(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)紅利。進入21世紀以來，由于“劉易斯轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折點”的(de)出現，當(dang)前勞動(dong)力增長處于停滯；勞動(dong)年(nian)齡人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)加(jia)速減少和老年(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)加(jia)速增長，導(dao)致人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)撫養比(bi)將會(hui)持續提高；以老年(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)增長為(wei)主導(dao)力量的(de)老齡化趨勢(shi)日益加(jia)劇。這些趨勢(shi)性(xing)的(de)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變(bian)不僅直接改(gai)變(bian)了(le)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)發(fa)展(zhan)面臨的(de)形勢(shi)和任務，同時也(ye)給(gei)社(she)會(hui)經濟發(fa)展(zhan)帶(dai)來巨(ju)大而深遠的(de)影響。

2019年(nian)(nian)是新(xin)中國成(cheng)立(li)70周年(nian)(nian)，也(ye)是實(shi)現全面(mian)建成(cheng)小康社會(hui)目標的關(guan)(guan)鍵一(yi)年(nian)(nian)。就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)形勢穩定至(zhi)關(guan)(guan)重(zhong)要，就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)工(gong)作(zuo)應(ying)該重(zhong)點(dian)關(guan)(guan)注(zhu)以下幾個方面(mian)問題：一(yi)是妥善應(ying)對過(guo)(guo)去幾年(nian)(nian)化解產能過(guo)(guo)剩和(he)(he)地方債務風(feng)險過(guo)(guo)程中積(ji)累的潛在就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)影響，積(ji)極(ji)做好(hao)就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)轉(zhuan)移、技能培(pei)訓和(he)(he)社會(hui)保(bao)障相(xiang)關(guan)(guan)工(gong)作(zuo)；二(er)是監(jian)測貧困人(ren)口(kou)和(he)(he)脫貧家(jia)庭的就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)狀況，繼續推(tui)進(jin)就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)扶(fu)貧工(gong)作(zuo)，增強(qiang)脫貧攻堅成(cheng)效；三是關(guan)(guan)注(zhu)人(ren)口(kou)凈流(liu)出(chu)地區、資源枯(ku)竭地區等(deng)就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)形勢，防止(zhi)出(chu)現局部性大(da)規模失業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)；四是繼續做好(hao)應(ying)屆高(gao)校畢業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生、退(tui)伍(wu)軍人(ren)等(deng)重(zhong)點(dian)群體的就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)工(gong)作(zuo)，同時關(guan)(guan)注(zhu)退(tui)休(xiu)返聘或再就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)人(ren)員、農(nong)村遷移老年(nian)(nian)人(ren)再就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)等(deng)新(xin)現象，落實(shi)相(xiang)關(guan)(guan)就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)政策(ce)。

為(wei)應對數(shu)(shu)字(zi)經濟(ji)(ji)對就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)市場和(he)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)制度所帶來的(de)(de)各項挑戰，我國(guo)要(yao)做好數(shu)(shu)字(zi)經濟(ji)(ji)大環境下(xia)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)服務(wu)的(de)(de)頂層設計，推動從工業(ye)(ye)(ye)經濟(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)“千人(ren)一(yi)面”到(dao)數(shu)(shu)字(zi)經濟(ji)(ji)下(xia)“千人(ren)千面”的(de)(de)轉變，實現人(ren)口紅利向(xiang)人(ren)才紅利的(de)(de)跨(kua)越發(fa)展。為(wei)了激(ji)發(fa)數(shu)(shu)字(zi)經濟(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)全部潛力(li)，政府(fu)要(yao)完善就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)相關法律和(he)社會保障(zhang)制度，提高制度和(he)政策的(de)(de)靈活性(xing)與普惠性(xing)；要(yao)重視數(shu)(shu)字(zi)人(ren)才培(pei)(pei)養、數(shu)(shu)字(zi)技能培(pei)(pei)訓，加強(qiang)數(shu)(shu)字(zi)人(ren)力(li)資源開(kai)發(fa)；要(yao)構建全國(guo)統一(yi)的(de)(de)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)信息(xi)服務(wu)網絡，優化(hua)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)服務(wu)體系；要(yao)努(nu)力(li)發(fa)展新產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、新業(ye)(ye)(ye)態，充分發(fa)掘數(shu)(shu)字(zi)經濟(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)創造能力(li)。

中國人口發展面臨的六大趨勢性重大轉折

進入21世紀以(yi)來(lai)，中(zhong)國人口已經(jing)出(chu)現了幾個重大轉折，在未(wei)來(lai)一(yi)個時(shi)期內還將出(chu)現新的(de)轉折性(xing)變(bian)(bian)化。這些趨(qu)勢性(xing)的(de)轉變(bian)(bian)不僅直接改變(bian)(bian)了人口發展面臨的(de)形勢和任(ren)務，同時(shi)也給社會經(jing)濟發展帶來(lai)巨大而(er)深遠的(de)影響。

（一）勞動力變化趨勢的轉折

在(zai)過去(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一個時(shi)期里(li)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)歷了勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)快速增長，勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)無限(xian)供(gong)(gong)給曾經(jing)(jing)是(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟高(gao)(gao)速發(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要條件，也曾經(jing)(jing)是(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟比較優勢的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要基礎。進入21世紀(ji)后，勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)給發(fa)生了重(zhong)大變(bian)化。首(shou)先是(shi)“劉易斯(si)轉折點”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)出(chu)(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)：2003年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)出(chu)(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“民(min)工(gong)(gong)荒”標(biao)志著(zhu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)無限(xian)供(gong)(gong)給時(shi)代的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)束（蔡昉，2008），都陽和(he)(he)王美艷(yan)（2010）利用2005年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1%人(ren)口抽樣(yang)調查數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju),并在(zai)考慮農(nong)村(cun)(cun)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)結(jie)構(gou)和(he)(he)個體(ti)特(te)征的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情況(kuang)下(xia)對(dui)農(nong)村(cun)(cun)剩(sheng)余勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)數(shu)(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)進行了估計，他們的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研究結(jie)果(guo)顯示(shi)，在(zai)現(xian)(xian)(xian)有的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)狀況(kuang)和(he)(he)制度環境下(xia),農(nong)業中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)可供(gong)(gong)轉移的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)只剩(sheng)下(xia)4300多萬。根據(ju)(ju)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家統計局公布的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)，2010~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)間農(nong)民(min)工(gong)(gong)數(shu)(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)增加(jia)了3900萬，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)外出(chu)(chu)農(nong)民(min)工(gong)(gong)數(shu)(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)僅增加(jia)了1850萬。“民(min)工(gong)(gong)荒”在(zai)東部沿海地區蔓延之后，其(qi)他地區勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)也出(chu)(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)了農(nong)民(min)工(gong)(gong)供(gong)(gong)不應求(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)(xian)象，農(nong)民(min)工(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)資(zi)水平逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)上漲，這些證據(ju)(ju)都表明中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟到達了“劉易斯(si)轉折點”（蔡昉、都陽，2011）。其(qi)次是(shi)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)口數(shu)(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)開始減(jian)少：2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)口（16~64歲(sui)）比前一年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少了160萬，這標(biao)志著(zhu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)潛(qian)在(zai)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)資(zi)源縮減(jian)時(shi)代的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)到來(lai)。到2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)口總共(gong)減(jian)少了578萬，隨(sui)著(zhu)1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代出(chu)(chu)生高(gao)(gao)峰(feng)隊列陸續超出(chu)(chu)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)，勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)口將會(hui)加(jia)速減(jian)少。聯合國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)（United Nations,2017）中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)方案預測結(jie)果(guo)顯示(shi)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)口在(zai)未來(lai)很(hen)長一個時(shi)期內將持續地加(jia)速減(jian)少，到2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)將減(jian)少2億人(ren)。勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)轉為負(fu)增長對(dui)于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟而言(yan)是(shi)一個重(zhong)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)變(bian)數(shu)(shu)(shu)，不僅給勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)供(gong)(gong)求(qiu)關系帶來(lai)結(jie)構(gou)性轉變(bian)，同時(shi)也對(dui)各種相關制度的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)改革提出(chu)(chu)了迫切要求(qiu)。

（二）人口撫養比變化趨勢的轉折

人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)變(bian)化的(de)(de)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)點出(chu)(chu)現于2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)從前一(yi)(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)34.2%提(ti)(ti)(ti)高到(dao)34.4%，從而(er)(er)終結了(le)持(chi)(chi)續了(le)30多(duo)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)下降(jiang)過程(cheng)。導致這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)性變(bian)化的(de)(de)直(zhi)(zhi)接原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)有兩個(ge)。一(yi)(yi)個(ge)原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)是勞動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)緩(huan)慢，2005~2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)總(zong)共(gong)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)了(le)6.5%，2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)僅僅增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)了(le)0.35%和0.1%。15~64歲勞動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)占(zhan)總(zong)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)的(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)的(de)(de)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)發生(sheng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，雖然比(bi)(bi)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)峰值(zhi)（74.4%）僅僅降(jiang)低了(le)0.3個(ge)百分(fen)點，但這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)折(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)的(de)(de)意義重(zhong)大。2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)勞動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)降(jiang)到(dao)73.0%，使得這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)下降(jiang)趨勢(shi)(shi)(shi)得到(dao)確認(ren)。另一(yi)(yi)個(ge)原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)是老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)出(chu)(chu)現了(le)較(jiao)快的(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，2005~2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)了(le)21.8%，年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)率為(wei)3.28%，遠(yuan)遠(yuan)超(chao)過勞動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)速(su)度。2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以后老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)率進一(yi)(yi)步提(ti)(ti)(ti)高，2011~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)率達(da)到(dao)4.26%，而(er)(er)勞動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)自2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)起(qi)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)為(wei)負增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，這(zhe)(zhe)使得人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高到(dao)37%。從未來發展趨勢(shi)(shi)(shi)看(kan)，由于勞動(dong)(dong)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)齡(ling)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)加速(su)減少(shao)和老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)加速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)將會持(chi)(chi)續提(ti)(ti)(ti)高。此外，政策(ce)調整(zheng)后的(de)(de)生(sheng)育(yu)率回升(sheng)會在(zai)(zai)(zai)一(yi)(yi)定程(cheng)度上提(ti)(ti)(ti)高少(shao)兒撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)，因(yin)(yin)此人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高的(de)(de)幅度將會進一(yi)(yi)步加大。根據聯(lian)合國中方案預(yu)測結果，未來的(de)(de)40年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)里，少(shao)兒撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)基本上是在(zai)(zai)(zai)22~25之間窄幅波動(dong)(dong)，而(er)(er)老年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2060年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)之前一(yi)(yi)直(zhi)(zhi)保持(chi)(chi)上升(sheng)狀(zhuang)態，并在(zai)(zai)(zai)2028年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右超(chao)過少(shao)兒撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)，成為(wei)決(jue)定總(zong)撫(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)養(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)變(bian)化趨勢(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)主(zhu)導因(yin)(yin)素(su)。

在(zai)其(qi)他條件(jian)一(yi)定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)下，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)提高(gao)意味(wei)著人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)生(sheng)(sheng)產性的(de)(de)(de)下降，邊際人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)紅利為(wei)負(fu)(fu)。特別需要(yao)注意的(de)(de)(de)是(shi)，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)提高(gao)有兩種(zhong)情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)，其(qi)一(yi)是(shi)由(you)(you)少(shao)兒撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)主(zhu)導的(de)(de)(de)總(zong)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)提高(gao)，其(qi)二是(shi)由(you)(you)老(lao)年(nian)(nian)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)主(zhu)導的(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)總(zong)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)提高(gao)。或者說，同(tong)樣水(shui)平的(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)，但(dan)內(nei)部結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)不同(tong)，一(yi)種(zhong)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)是(shi)以負(fu)(fu)擔(dan)少(shao)兒人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)為(wei)主(zhu)，另一(yi)種(zhong)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)是(shi)以負(fu)(fu)擔(dan)老(lao)年(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)為(wei)主(zhu)。例如，2032年(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)將回(hui)升到51%左(zuo)右，與1994年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)水(shui)平相當，但(dan)是(shi)1994年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)中(zhong)(zhong)，少(shao)兒撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)占到83.4%，而2032年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)中(zhong)(zhong)，老(lao)年(nian)(nian)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)占到56%。這(zhe)兩種(zhong)情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)的(de)(de)(de)社會經(jing)濟(ji)含義(yi)有很大差別，前(qian)者是(shi)對未來生(sheng)(sheng)產力(li)的(de)(de)(de)投資，后者則是(shi)純粹的(de)(de)(de)消費(fei)，對于公共(gong)支出(chu)而言，這(zhe)兩種(zhong)負(fu)(fu)擔(dan)的(de)(de)(de)意義(yi)也完全不同(tong)。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)未來撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)將會在(zai)水(shui)平和結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)兩個維度(du)(du)上(shang)發生(sheng)(sheng)變化，在(zai)水(shui)平維度(du)(du)上(shang)將會出(chu)現長達40年(nian)(nian)左(zuo)右的(de)(de)(de)上(shang)升趨勢，在(zai)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)維度(du)(du)上(shang)將發生(sheng)(sheng)從(cong)以少(shao)兒撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)為(wei)主(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)轉變為(wei)以老(lao)年(nian)(nian)撫(fu)養(yang)(yang)(yang)比(bi)(bi)為(wei)主(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)。這(zhe)兩個維度(du)(du)的(de)(de)(de)變化都會削弱人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)的(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)產性。

（三）生育政策的轉向和生育率的回升

如同許多處(chu)于后生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)(lv)轉(zhuan)變(bian)階段的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)家(jia)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)在完成了轉(zhuan)變(bian)之后也很(hen)快(kuai)(kuai)走向(xiang)了很(hen)低(di)水平(ping)(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)(lv)。長期(qi)(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)低(di)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)(lv)會(hui)導(dao)致高(gao)(gao)度的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)老齡化和人(ren)口(kou)衰退，從而(er)給社會(hui)經(jing)濟帶(dai)來(lai)多重挑戰(zhan)，因(yin)此世界(jie)上幾乎(hu)所(suo)有(you)處(chu)于很(hen)低(di)和極低(di)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)水平(ping)(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)家(jia)都采取了支持和鼓(gu)勵生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)。對(dui)于生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)(lv)轉(zhuan)變(bian)非常(chang)迅速的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)而(er)言(yan)，如果低(di)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)(lv)不能(neng)很(hen)快(kuai)(kuai)得(de)到(dao)(dao)(dao)扭轉(zhuan)，將會(hui)面臨比其他國(guo)家(jia)更為嚴峻的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)局(ju)面。2013年(nian)(nian)11月(yue)，《中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)共中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)央關于全(quan)(quan)面深化改革若干重大(da)問題的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)決定》提出“啟動(dong)實施(shi)一(yi)方是獨生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)子女(nv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)夫婦可生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)兩(liang)個(ge)孩(hai)(hai)子的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)”，2015年(nian)(nian)10月(yue)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)共中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)央決定“全(quan)(quan)面實施(shi)一(yi)對(dui)夫婦可以生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)兩(liang)個(ge)孩(hai)(hai)子政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)”。政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)實施(shi)后，雖然(ran)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)(lv)提高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)幅(fu)度不盡如人(ren)意，但也已經(jing)顯現出生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)(lv)對(dui)新生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)積極反應。國(guo)家(jia)統計局(ju)根據全(quan)(quan)國(guo)人(ren)口(kou)變(bian)動(dong)抽樣調查數據的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)推(tui)算分(fen)析表明(ming)，2016年(nian)(nian)二孩(hai)(hai)出生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)數量大(da)幅(fu)上升(sheng)(sheng)，明(ming)顯高(gao)(gao)于“十二五”時期(qi)(qi)平(ping)(ping)均水平(ping)(ping)，2017年(nian)(nian)二孩(hai)(hai)數量進一(yi)步上升(sheng)(sheng)至883萬人(ren)，比2016年(nian)(nian)增加了162萬人(ren)；二孩(hai)(hai)占全(quan)(quan)部出生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)人(ren)口(kou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)比重達到(dao)(dao)(dao)51.2%，比2016年(nian)(nian)提高(gao)(gao)了11個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點。在全(quan)(quan)部出生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)嬰兒中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，二孩(hai)(hai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)比例明(ming)顯提高(gao)(gao)，并且超過了50%。根據世界(jie)銀行估計，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)總(zong)和生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)(lv)從1996年(nian)(nian)開始一(yi)直低(di)于1.6，直到(dao)(dao)(dao)2013年(nian)(nian)回升(sheng)(sheng)到(dao)(dao)(dao)1.6，2016年(nian)(nian)為1.62。如果這個(ge)趨勢能(neng)夠(gou)得(de)到(dao)(dao)(dao)延(yan)續，那么中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)(yu)(yu)率(lv)(lv)就可以回升(sheng)(sheng)到(dao)(dao)(dao)一(yi)個(ge)相對(dui)安(an)全(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)水平(ping)(ping)。

（四）老齡化動力機制的轉換

老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)進(jin)程并非(fei)只由(you)(you)一(yi)種(zhong)力(li)(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)推動，因為老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)以老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)口(kou)占總人(ren)(ren)口(kou)比重來衡量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)，老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)口(kou)與(yu)其他年齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)相(xiang)對變化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)結果。因此(ci)，有三種(zhong)力(li)(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)會推動老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)，第一(yi)個力(li)(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)生(sheng)育(yu)率下(xia)降(jiang)導(dao)致出生(sheng)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)減少(shao)，此(ci)時即使老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)口(kou)增長緩慢甚(shen)至沒有增長，老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)口(kou)比重也會提高；第二個力(li)(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)口(kou)的(de)(de)(de)增長；第三個力(li)(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)長壽，即老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)存(cun)活的(de)(de)(de)年齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)更(geng)高。由(you)(you)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)變化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)內在(zai)機理(li)和歷史邏輯所決定，一(yi)個人(ren)(ren)口(kou)群體的(de)(de)(de)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)過程是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)分別由(you)(you)不同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)力(li)(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)遞次推進(jin)的(de)(de)(de)，或者說，在(zai)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)發展的(de)(de)(de)不同(tong)階(jie)(jie)(jie)段，推動老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)并不相(xiang)同(tong)。據此(ci)，可以把老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)過程劃分為前(qian)期(qi)階(jie)(jie)(jie)段、中(zhong)(zhong)期(qi)階(jie)(jie)(jie)段和后期(qi)階(jie)(jie)(jie)段。在(zai)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)前(qian)期(qi)階(jie)(jie)(jie)段，推動老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)生(sheng)育(yu)率的(de)(de)(de)下(xia)降(jiang)，中(zhong)(zhong)期(qi)階(jie)(jie)(jie)段的(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人(ren)(ren)口(kou)的(de)(de)(de)增長，后期(qi)階(jie)(jie)(jie)段的(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)長壽。

對于中(zhong)國而(er)言(yan)，老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)的(de)前期(qi)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)是(shi)從(cong)(cong)1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)到2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)結(jie)束(shu)這(zhe)里的(de)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)劃分(fen)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)份并非精確時(shi)(shi)(shi)間的(de)表達(da)，而(er)是(shi)大(da)致的(de)估計。即使如此(ci)，也(ye)(ye)有一(yi)些依(yi)據：第(di)一(yi)，中(zhong)國的(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)率(lv)(lv)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變從(cong)(cong)1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)，而(er)老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)也(ye)(ye)是(shi)在(zai)這(zhe)一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)起步。第(di)二，從(cong)(cong)2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)，抗(kang)日戰爭結(jie)束(shu)后出生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)進(jin)入老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，緊(jin)跟其(qi)后是(shi)1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)出生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)高(gao)(gao)峰隊列陸續進(jin)入老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)時(shi)(shi)(shi)期(qi)65歲(sui)及以上(shang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口總(zong)共(gong)增(zeng)(zeng)加了(le)(le)8320萬(wan)，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)每(mei)(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈(jing)增(zeng)(zeng)208萬(wan)，而(er)15歲(sui)以下少(shao)兒(er)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口減(jian)少(shao)了(le)(le)9017萬(wan)，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)每(mei)(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈(jing)減(jian)225萬(wan)。因此(ci)，這(zhe)個(ge)(ge)時(shi)(shi)(shi)期(qi)老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)的(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)量是(shi)1970年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)的(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)率(lv)(lv)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變及后來的(de)低生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)率(lv)(lv)。在(zai)此(ci)期(qi)間，老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)水(shui)平(ping)從(cong)(cong)3.76%提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)到8.40%，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)每(mei)(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)0.12個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點。老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)的(de)中(zhong)期(qi)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)是(shi)從(cong)(cong)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)到2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右結(jie)束(shu)，從(cong)(cong)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開(kai)始(shi)(shi)，中(zhong)國老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口進(jin)入了(le)(le)一(yi)個(ge)(ge)快速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)時(shi)(shi)(shi)期(qi)，2010~2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口將(jiang)(jiang)總(zong)共(gong)增(zeng)(zeng)加2.24億(yi)人(ren)(ren)(ren)，年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)率(lv)(lv)為3.62%，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)每(mei)(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)凈(jing)增(zeng)(zeng)746萬(wan)。在(zai)此(ci)期(qi)間，1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)和1960年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)出生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)高(gao)(gao)峰隊列將(jiang)(jiang)全部(bu)進(jin)入老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)。在(zai)老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口快速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的(de)同時(shi)(shi)(shi)，總(zong)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口將(jiang)(jiang)在(zai)2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右開(kai)始(shi)(shi)出現負增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，這(zhe)兩種相反的(de)變化(hua)趨(qu)勢(shi)進(jin)一(yi)步提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)了(le)(le)老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)的(de)發展速度，老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)水(shui)平(ping)在(zai)2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)達(da)到23.84%，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)每(mei)(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)0.51個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點。與前一(yi)個(ge)(ge)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)相比，中(zhong)期(qi)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)速度提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)了(le)(le)3倍。因此(ci)，中(zhong)國老(lao)(lao)(lao)齡(ling)(ling)化(hua)的(de)動力(li)機制(zhi)已經轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變為以老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)為主(zhu)導(dao)力(li)量。

到2040年(nian)(nian)左右，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)將進(jin)入(ru)老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)的(de)(de)后(hou)期階(jie)段(duan)，即以(yi)(yi)長壽(shou)(shou)為(wei)(wei)(wei)主(zhu)導(dao)力量的(de)(de)老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)階(jie)段(duan)，這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)(ge)階(jie)段(duan)也可稱(cheng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)階(jie)段(duan)。到目前為(wei)(wei)(wei)止(zhi)，學術(shu)界對于高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)或者(zhe)(zhe)高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)社會(hui)(hui)的(de)(de)標(biao)準還沒有一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)明確(que)的(de)(de)定義，或者(zhe)(zhe)被普遍接(jie)受(shou)的(de)(de)定義。考慮到這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)(ge)情況(kuang)，可以(yi)(yi)基于歷(li)史觀(guan)察歸納出(chu)可用于判斷(duan)的(de)(de)標(biao)準。我們選擇了兩個(ge)(ge)參照系，一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)是高(gao)(gao)收入(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)平(ping)(ping)均水平(ping)(ping)，另一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)是目前世(shi)界上最長壽(shou)(shou)的(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)日本(ben)。之所(suo)以(yi)(yi)選擇這(zhe)(zhe)兩個(ge)(ge)參照系，是因為(wei)(wei)(wei)其老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)進(jin)程遠遠走在(zai)(zai)(zai)了其他國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)和(he)地區的(de)(de)前面，并(bing)可以(yi)(yi)呈(cheng)現一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)完整的(de)(de)老(lao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)過程。選取的(de)(de)參照指標(biao)包括四個(ge)(ge)：（1）出(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)時(shi)平(ping)(ping)均預(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命(ming)(ming)(ming)達(da)到80歲(sui)(sui)(sui)(sui)；（2）60歲(sui)(sui)(sui)(sui)時(shi)平(ping)(ping)均預(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命(ming)(ming)(ming)達(da)到25歲(sui)(sui)(sui)(sui)；（3）80歲(sui)(sui)(sui)(sui)及(ji)以(yi)(yi)上老(lao)年(nian)(nian)人口(kou)(kou)(kou)在(zai)(zai)(zai)總人口(kou)(kou)(kou)中(zhong)占(zhan)比(bi)達(da)到5%；（4）80歲(sui)(sui)(sui)(sui)及(ji)以(yi)(yi)上老(lao)年(nian)(nian)人在(zai)(zai)(zai)65歲(sui)(sui)(sui)(sui)及(ji)以(yi)(yi)上老(lao)年(nian)(nian)人口(kou)(kou)(kou)中(zhong)占(zhan)比(bi)達(da)到25%。日本(ben)是在(zai)(zai)(zai)2006年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)時(shi)滿足(zu)了上述(shu)條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)(jian)；而高(gao)(gao)收入(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2005年(nian)(nian)滿足(zu)了指標(biao)（3）的(de)(de)條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)(jian)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)2019年(nian)(nian)滿足(zu)指標(biao)（4）的(de)(de)條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)(jian)，并(bing)分別在(zai)(zai)(zai)2012年(nian)(nian)和(he)2024年(nian)(nian)滿足(zu)指標(biao)（1）的(de)(de)條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)(jian)和(he)指標(biao)（2）的(de)(de)條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)(jian)。如(ru)果稍微(wei)放松(song)指標(biao)（2）的(de)(de)條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)(jian)高(gao)(gao)收入(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)2015~2020年(nian)(nian)60歲(sui)(sui)(sui)(sui)時(shi)平(ping)(ping)均預(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命(ming)(ming)(ming)為(wei)(wei)(wei)24.5歲(sui)(sui)(sui)(sui)，高(gao)(gao)收入(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)整體上應該(gai)是在(zai)(zai)(zai)2019年(nian)(nian)進(jin)入(ru)高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)社會(hui)(hui)。日本(ben)和(he)高(gao)(gao)收入(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)情況(kuang)表明，上述(shu)4項指標(biao)水平(ping)(ping)之間具有高(gao)(gao)度的(de)(de)協(xie)同(tong)(tong)性(xing)和(he)一(yi)(yi)致性(xing)，因此可以(yi)(yi)作為(wei)(wei)(wei)高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)化(hua)或高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)社會(hui)(hui)的(de)(de)標(biao)準。按照這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)(ge)標(biao)準，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)將在(zai)(zai)(zai)2040~2045年(nian)(nian)間進(jin)入(ru)高(gao)(gao)齡(ling)(ling)(ling)社會(hui)(hui)，根(gen)據聯合國(guo)(guo)(guo)中(zhong)方案預(yu)測，2040~2045年(nian)(nian)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)人口(kou)(kou)(kou)出(chu)生(sheng)(sheng)時(shi)平(ping)(ping)均預(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命(ming)(ming)(ming)為(wei)(wei)(wei)80.34歲(sui)(sui)(sui)(sui)，60歲(sui)(sui)(sui)(sui)時(shi)的(de)(de)平(ping)(ping)均預(yu)期壽(shou)(shou)命(ming)(ming)(ming)為(wei)(wei)(wei)22.87歲(sui)(sui)(sui)(sui)；80歲(sui)(sui)(sui)(sui)及(ji)以(yi)(yi)上老(lao)年(nian)(nian)人在(zai)(zai)(zai)總人口(kou)(kou)(kou)中(zhong)占(zhan)比(bi)于2041年(nian)(nian)達(da)到5.15%,在(zai)(zai)(zai)65歲(sui)(sui)(sui)(sui)及(ji)以(yi)(yi)上老(lao)年(nian)(nian)人口(kou)(kou)(kou)中(zhong)的(de)(de)占(zhan)比(bi)于2045年(nian)(nian)達(da)到24.9%。

（五）城鎮化已進入中后期發展階段

按(an)照(zhao)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際經驗，人(ren)口城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)化(hua)(hua)進(jin)(jin)程可(ke)以(yi)劃(hua)分為(wei)三個發展(zhan)階(jie)段(duan)，在達(da)(da)到(dao)50%之前是前期(qi)階(jie)段(duan)，從50%到(dao)70%是中期(qi)階(jie)段(duan)，從70%到(dao)80%是后期(qi)階(jie)段(duan)。城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)化(hua)(hua)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)達(da)(da)到(dao)80%即(ji)標志著城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)完(wan)成(cheng)。根(gen)據聯合國(guo)(guo)(guo)（United Nations,2018）的(de)(de)(de)估計,2015年發達(da)(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家人(ren)口城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)平(ping)(ping)均水(shui)平(ping)(ping)為(wei)78.1%，高收入國(guo)(guo)(guo)家的(de)(de)(de)平(ping)(ping)均水(shui)平(ping)(ping)為(wei)80.9%。一(yi)些國(guo)(guo)(guo)家在達(da)(da)到(dao)這(zhe)(zhe)個水(shui)平(ping)(ping)后還會進(jin)(jin)一(yi)步提高，例如(ru)2015年比利(li)時達(da)(da)到(dao)97.9%，日本達(da)(da)到(dao)91.4%，丹麥達(da)(da)到(dao)87.5%，瑞典達(da)(da)到(dao)86.6%。還有一(yi)些人(ren)口規模很小或地理(li)條件特殊的(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家和地區超過90%甚至達(da)(da)到(dao)100%。此外，拉美的(de)(de)(de)烏拉圭（95.5%）、阿根(gen)廷（91.5%）、委內瑞拉（88.2%）、智利(li)（87.4%）、巴(ba)西（85.8%）等國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)化(hua)(hua)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)也非常高，但這(zhe)(zhe)些國(guo)(guo)(guo)家存在著人(ren)口過度城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)化(hua)(hua)問題(ti)。

中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)的(de)人(ren)口城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)化進(jin)(jin)程自1978年(nian)啟動，從(cong)2000年(nian)開(kai)始加(jia)速(su)，到2017年(nian)總共提高了40個百(bai)分點。按照2000~2017年(nian)的(de)發展速(su)度(du)，2018年(nian)的(de)人(ren)口城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)化水平(ping)(ping)可以達到60%。這標志著中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)的(de)人(ren)口城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)化進(jin)(jin)程目前已進(jin)(jin)入(ru)中(zhong)(zhong)期發展階段(duan)的(de)后(hou)半期，根(gen)據聯合國(guo)的(de)預(yu)測（United Nations,2018），中(zhong)(zhong)期發展階段(duan)將在2030年(nian)結束(shu)，屆時(shi)的(de)人(ren)口城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)化水平(ping)(ping)為70%；從(cong)2031年(nian)開(kai)始進(jin)(jin)入(ru)后(hou)期發展階段(duan)，在2050年(nian)達到80%，這意味著中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)人(ren)口城(cheng)鎮(zhen)(zhen)化進(jin)(jin)程還需(xu)要30年(nian)左右(you)才能結束(shu)。

（六）人口負增長時代即將到來

對于中國的(de)(de)(de)人口(kou)(kou)而(er)言，21世紀上(shang)半(ban)葉發(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)最(zui)大的(de)(de)(de)人口(kou)(kou)事件莫過(guo)于人口(kou)(kou)負(fu)增(zeng)長(chang)時(shi)代的(de)(de)(de)到來。根(gen)據聯合國中方案總和(he)(he)生育(yu)率(lv)(lv)設定為2015~2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.63，2020~2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.66，2025~2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.69，2030~2035年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.71，2035~2040年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.72，2040~2045年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.74，2045~2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.75，2050~2055年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.76，2055~2060年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.77，2060~2065年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1.77。預測(ce)，中國人口(kou)(kou)將在(zai)2029年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)達(da)到峰值14.42億(yi)，從(cong)2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始(shi)進入持續的(de)(de)(de)負(fu)增(zeng)長(chang)，2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)到13.64億(yi)，2065年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)到12.48億(yi)，即(ji)縮減(jian)(jian)到1996年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)規模。如(ru)果總和(he)(he)生育(yu)率(lv)(lv)一直保持在(zai)1.6的(de)(de)(de)水平，人口(kou)(kou)負(fu)增(zeng)長(chang)將提前到2027年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)出(chu)現,2065年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人口(kou)(kou)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)到11.72億(yi)，相當于1990年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)規模。

長期持(chi)續的(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)負增長究竟會(hui)造成怎樣的(de)社會(hui)經(jing)濟后果？從理論邏輯上(shang)看，長期的(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)衰(shuai)退，尤其是伴(ban)隨著不斷加劇的(de)老齡(ling)化，勢(shi)必(bi)會(hui)帶來非常不利的(de)社會(hui)經(jing)濟后果。中國的(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)負增長已經(jing)勢(shi)不可當，從現在(zai)開(kai)始亟須開(kai)展研究和進行政策儲(chu)備。

互聯網使用對中低收入人群有顯著影響

研究發現：第(di)一，個體有(you)(you)互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)使用行為可以(yi)使個體年勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)收(shou)入(ru)增加46.52%；第(di)二，互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)使用對(dui)中低收(shou)入(ru)人群有(you)(you)顯(xian)著影(ying)響，對(dui)高收(shou)入(ru)人群沒(mei)有(you)(you)顯(xian)著影(ying)響。具(ju)體來說，使用互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)讓(rang)處在25%和(he)50%分位數(shu)上的(de)就(jiu)業者(zhe)(zhe)的(de)年工(gong)資水(shui)平分別提(ti)高了11950.23元和(he)8371.39元；第(di)三，使用互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)的(de)中高技(ji)能勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)收(shou)入(ru)提(ti)高了83.39%，遠(yuan)高于總體樣(yang)本回歸結果(guo)，使用互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)對(dui)低技(ji)能勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)沒(mei)有(you)(you)顯(xian)著影(ying)響。

因此，綠皮書建議：第一，降(jiang)低(di)數(shu)字化門檻以(yi)提升勞動者收入(ru)。由于(yu)我(wo)國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)區域(yu)發展(zhan)不(bu)平衡，勞動者受(shou)教育水平和互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)使(shi)用能(neng)(neng)力差異巨大(da)，我(wo)國(guo)應當在國(guo)家層面降(jiang)低(di)數(shu)字化門檻，提升低(di)技能(neng)(neng)勞動者對(dui)于(yu)互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)的(de)(de)(de)基(ji)本使(shi)用能(neng)(neng)力，開展(zhan)大(da)量的(de)(de)(de)互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)技能(neng)(neng)培(pei)訓(xun)課程(cheng)，降(jiang)低(di)不(bu)同群體間的(de)(de)(de)“數(shu)字鴻溝”。同時，隨著(zhu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)經(jing)濟和新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)就業的(de)(de)(de)迅猛發展(zhan)，新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)的(de)(de)(de)勞動保護法律亟待出(chu)臺，新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型勞動關系有(you)待確(que)立。但(dan)在新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)的(de)(de)(de)法律法規和政(zheng)(zheng)策文件(jian)的(de)(de)(de)干(gan)預過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)中要(yao)警惕政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)對(dui)市場經(jing)濟的(de)(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)度干(gan)預。在新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)經(jing)濟發展(zhan)中，政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)應當扮演更重要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)角(jiao)色，減少直接干(gan)預，側重于(yu)為市場提供必要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)(zheng)策與制(zhi)度條件(jian)。

第二，擴(kuo)大高(gao)(gao)(gao)等(deng)(deng)教育規模和(he)創新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)以提升勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)技(ji)(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)。從本(ben)文研(yan)究可以看出，互聯網(wang)(wang)使用(yong)為(wei)高(gao)(gao)(gao)技(ji)(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)提供(gong)更(geng)(geng)加(jia)豐富的(de)(de)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)機(ji)會和(he)靈活(huo)的(de)(de)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)選擇，并在(zai)一定程度(du)上(shang)惡化了低(di)技(ji)(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)的(de)(de)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)空間(jian)。互聯網(wang)(wang)加(jia)劇了不(bu)同(tong)(tong)技(ji)(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)間(jian)的(de)(de)結(jie)構性失(shi)衡(heng)，隨著(zhu)互聯網(wang)(wang)規模的(de)(de)擴(kuo)大、個體互聯網(wang)(wang)使用(yong)和(he)數(shu)字人(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)(li)(li)資本(ben)的(de)(de)提高(gao)(gao)(gao)，中高(gao)(gao)(gao)技(ji)(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)在(zai)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)上(shang)獲得更(geng)(geng)高(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)收益，而(er)互聯網(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)發(fa)展對于(yu)低(di)技(ji)(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)的(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)收入提高(gao)(gao)(gao)并不(bu)顯著(zhu)。考慮到低(di)技(ji)(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)更(geng)(geng)可能(neng)(neng)(neng)被技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)偏向型(xing)的(de)(de)互聯網(wang)(wang)所(suo)替代，無論(lun)是對于(yu)沒(mei)有進(jin)入勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)的(de)(de)低(di)學歷潛在(zai)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)者(zhe)(zhe)還是低(di)技(ji)(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)者(zhe)(zhe)來說(shuo)，互聯網(wang)(wang)時代的(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)格局都不(bu)利于(yu)他們的(de)(de)就(jiu)(jiu)業(ye)前景。因此，隨著(zhu)人(ren)(ren)口出生率增速(su)減緩，人(ren)(ren)口老齡(ling)化增速(su)加(jia)快(kuai)，只有進(jin)一步(bu)擴(kuo)大高(gao)(gao)(gao)等(deng)(deng)教育規模，才(cai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)改善勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)技(ji)(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)結(jie)構，為(wei)“中國制(zhi)造2025”和(he)高(gao)(gao)(gao)端服務(wu)業(ye)的(de)(de)轉型(xing)提供(gong)足(zu)夠(gou)的(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)需求。同(tong)(tong)時，隨著(zhu)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)進(jin)步(bu)速(su)度(du)的(de)(de)加(jia)快(kuai)和(he)互聯網(wang)(wang)普及程度(du)的(de)(de)提升，我國高(gao)(gao)(gao)等(deng)(deng)教育應當更(geng)(geng)加(jia)重(zhong)(zhong)視培養創新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)，在(zai)提升技(ji)(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)教育的(de)(de)同(tong)(tong)時，培育更(geng)(geng)多具(ju)(ju)有創新(xin)精(jing)神(shen)的(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)(gao)等(deng)(deng)本(ben)科教育人(ren)(ren)才(cai)和(he)具(ju)(ju)有工(gong)匠(jiang)精(jing)神(shen)的(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)(gao)等(deng)(deng)職業(ye)教育人(ren)(ren)才(cai)，把(ba)“創新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)”作為(wei)改善勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)技(ji)(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)人(ren)(ren)才(cai)結(jie)構的(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)中之重(zhong)(zhong)。

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